The Commonplace
Home Papers Evidence Explore Trends Syntheses Digests About 🎲 Workforce Futures
Direction, evidence grade, and study type are AI-generated labels (gpt-5-mini), not human-verified. Syntheses are LLM-written. "Tensions" are machine-detected candidates, not confirmed contradictions. A research-acceleration tool, not peer review. How this is built →

Evidence (16496 claims)

Search and filter individual claims pulled from the papers. Looking for a specific finding ("what's the effect on wages?"), you're in the right place. Want to compare whole outcome categories against each other instead? Use the Evidence Explorer.

The board below groups claims two ways: by broad theme (nine paper-level topics) and by outcome category (the 34 claim-level outcomes that the Explorer and Syntheses also use).

Browse by theme

Nine broad, paper-level topics. Click one to filter the claims below.

Adoption
9875 claims
Filter claims →
Productivity
8807 claims
Filter claims →
Governance
7870 claims
Filter claims →
Human-AI Collaboration
7560 claims
Filter claims →
Org Design
4892 claims
Filter claims →
Innovation
4781 claims
Filter claims →
Labor Markets
4004 claims
Filter claims →
Skills & Training
3308 claims
Filter claims →
Inequality
2332 claims
Filter claims →

Claims by outcome category

Counts by direction of finding. These are the same 34 outcome categories the Explorer compares and the Syntheses are written for. A linked row has a published synthesis.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 870 233 116 1066 2363
Governance & Regulation 976 451 218 133 1809
Organizational Efficiency 949 224 144 88 1416
Technology Adoption Rate 764 287 141 122 1325
Research Productivity 501 152 74 362 1101
Output Quality 542 216 69 69 896
Decision Quality 387 198 94 54 740
Firm Productivity 513 67 101 27 714
AI Safety & Ethics 249 303 73 36 667
Market Structure 190 192 134 27 548
Task Allocation 243 77 91 36 452
Innovation Output 291 33 55 20 401
Skill Acquisition 206 72 65 21 364
Employment Level 133 63 115 22 335
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 153 79 52 32 323
Task Completion Time 206 37 12 15 272
Firm Revenue 179 52 29 5 266
Consumer Welfare 130 76 47 13 266
Inequality Measures 48 137 51 6 242
Worker Satisfaction 101 81 25 13 220
Error Rate 84 110 11 5 210
Wages & Compensation 98 47 30 10 185
Regulatory Compliance 88 73 17 7 185
Automation Exposure 66 64 33 16 182
Team Performance 105 29 30 11 176
Training Effectiveness 109 22 14 21 168
Developer Productivity 114 21 14 8 158
Job Displacement 12 90 24 1 127
Hiring & Recruitment 57 9 9 5 80
Skill Obsolescence 6 56 9 1 72
Social Protection 43 17 8 2 70
Creative Output 35 21 9 4 70
Labor Share of Income 18 21 17 1 57
Worker Turnover 15 16 4 35
Industry 1 1
The bottleneck is often not model capability but missing project memory.
Assertion made in the abstract without accompanying quantitative evidence in the abstract.
high negative PROJECTMEM: A Local-First, Event-Sourced Memory and Judgment... primary_bottleneck_for_ai_coding_agents
Reconstructing this context can consume an estimated 5,000-20,000 tokens per session.
Statement in paper abstract presenting an estimate (no detailed method or sample described in the abstract).
high negative PROJECTMEM: A Local-First, Event-Sourced Memory and Judgment... context_size_in_tokens_per_session
Existing benchmarks for time-series forecasting focus solely on prediction error metrics; the decision utility of advanced forecasting (foundation) models remains unverified.
Authors' literature/benchmark review and critique presented in the paper.
high negative CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Re... coverage of evaluation metrics (prediction error vs decision utility)
Resource utilization in cloud data centers remains at low levels due to conservative over-provisioning to guarantee service reliability.
Stated as background motivation in the paper (literature/operational observation); asserted by authors as common industry phenomenon.
high negative CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Re... resource utilization (low levels) driven by over-provisioning
With the instruction files, 26.35% of the projects decreased their merge rate.
Reported proportion of projects showing a decrease in merge rate after creating instruction files based on the pre/post comparison of projects in the dataset (148 projects, 15,549 PRs).
high negative Toward Instructions-as-Code: Understanding the Impact of Ins... merge rate of agentic pull requests (projects showing decrease)
Xie et al. (2026) show experimentally that job candidates are less satisfied with firms using AI evaluators than with human experts due to perceived loss of control; the negative effect is stronger for individuals with an internal locus of control.
Experimental study on recruitment using control theory as described (sample size not provided).
high negative Guest editorial: Digital age wisdom in Chinese management: a... candidate satisfaction with recruitment process
In the healthcare sector, Chou et al. (2026a, 2026b) identify AI anxiety as a multifaceted hurdle to adoption; emotional affect and outcome expectations are essential influences on usage intentions (two-stage SEM-ANN approach).
Two-stage SEM–ANN modeling grounded in social cognitive theory as reported; empirical data specifics not provided in text.
high negative Guest editorial: Digital age wisdom in Chinese management: a... usage intentions for AI in healthcare
Liu et al. (2026a, 2026b) find experimentally that the severity of AI service failure in hotel contactless services significantly decreases customers' forgiveness willingness, but high levels of brand attachment mitigate this negative effect.
Experimental studies in hotel contactless service contexts (details and sample sizes not provided in the text).
high negative Guest editorial: Digital age wisdom in Chinese management: a... forgiveness willingness following AI service failure
Allowing AI to take the lead in strategic decision-making without human wisdom may be inappropriate due to AI's inability to navigate tacit knowledge and ethical nuances in Chinese management wisdom.
Argumentative claim based on cited literature (e.g., De Cremer and Kasparov, 2021; Del Giudice et al., 2023) and authors' synthesis.
high negative Guest editorial: Digital age wisdom in Chinese management: a... appropriateness/effectiveness of AI-led strategic decision-making
Developers reject fixes for (a) incorrect implementation (e.g., incomplete, wrong approach), (b) fixes that do not pass CI pipelines and fail tests, (c) fixes for which the agent is unable to perform the implementation (e.g., no code generated, sessions lost), and (d) fixes whose priority is low.
Observed categories from the qualitative analysis of the 306 non-merged PRs described in the study.
high negative Understanding the Rejection of Fixes Generated by Agentic Pu... reasons for rejection of agent-generated fixes (implementation correctness, CI/t...
The qualitative findings identify 14 reasons divided into four high-level categories for rejecting AI-agent fixes.
Result of the paper's qualitative analysis on the representative sample (306 non-merged PRs).
high negative Understanding the Rejection of Fixes Generated by Agentic Pu... number and categorization of reasons for rejection
From a first exploration of the AIDev dataset, 46.41% of the fixes proposed by the agents Copilot, Devin, Cursor, and Claude are rejected.
Empirical analysis of the AIDev dataset reported by the authors; agents named explicitly (Copilot, Devin, Cursor, Claude).
high negative Understanding the Rejection of Fixes Generated by Agentic Pu... proportion of proposed fixes that are rejected
One in three Scheduled Tribe (ST) graduates work in farm or elementary occupations untouched by AI.
Occupational distribution from PLFS 2025 after mapping AI-exposure indices; reported share of ST graduates in farm/elementary (AI-unexposed) occupations in the 83,000-employed-graduate sample.
high negative The Privilege of Exposure: Caste and Generative AI in India'... share of ST graduates employed in farm or elementary (AI-unexposed) occupations
One in four Scheduled Caste (SC) graduates work in farm or elementary occupations untouched by AI.
Occupational distribution from PLFS 2025 after mapping AI-exposure indices; reported share of SC graduates in farm/elementary (AI-unexposed) occupations in the 83,000-employed-graduate sample.
high negative The Privilege of Exposure: Caste and Generative AI in India'... share of SC graduates employed in farm or elementary (AI-unexposed) occupations
Graduates from the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes are 0.24--0.37 standard deviations less exposed than upper-caste graduates within the same district.
Within-district comparisons using three occupational AI-exposure indices mapped to PLFS 2025; reported standardized exposure differences for SC and ST graduates relative to upper-caste graduates in the 83,000-employed-graduate sample.
high negative The Privilege of Exposure: Caste and Generative AI in India'... AI exposure index (standardized)
Existing evaluation frameworks mask critical architectural gaps and inefficiencies of complex MAS by failing to account for the marginal utility of increased computational cost.
Comparative analysis of performance versus computational cost across evaluated systems showing limited marginal gains despite higher cost (authors' analysis across experiments).
high negative The Illusion of Multi-Agent Advantage marginal utility (performance gains per unit cost)
Across traditional reasoning datasets and tasks with interactive multi-step workflows (e.g., BrowseComp-Plus), automatically generated MAS consistently underperform Chain-of-Thought with Self-Consistency (CoT-SC) despite being up to 10x more expensive.
Systematic empirical evaluation comparing automatically generated MAS to CoT-SC across multiple task suites including traditional reasoning datasets and interactive multi-step workflows such as BrowseComp-Plus (experimental comparisons reported in the paper).
high negative The Illusion of Multi-Agent Advantage task performance (accuracy/quality) and computational cost
Empirical support for MAS superiority relies primarily on comparisons with SAS baselines using benchmarks that prioritize isolated reasoning tasks, which do not adequately assess MAS advantages.
Critical literature review and analysis of prior empirical evaluations (authors' claim about the composition and limitations of existing benchmarks).
high negative The Illusion of Multi-Agent Advantage adequacy of existing benchmarks for evaluating MAS advantages
Right now, across the world, AI agents recompute a document's KV cache from scratch each time a document is read, so many agents redundantly re-run the compute-intensive prefill step on identical text.
Authors' empirical/operational observation of current agent behavior described in the paper (no explicit sample size reported).
high negative Can I Buy Your KV Cache? redundant_compute_work (re-running prefill across agents)
Even a high-quality initial model can be undermined over time because human creators, relying on the model, produce more homogeneous content that harms subsequent training and lowers model performance.
Dynamic theoretical modeling and qualitative analysis in the paper demonstrating increased reliance on AI-assisted content creation and its effect on training data distribution.
high negative Market Design for AI: Beyond the Copyright Binary degree of content homogeneity and downstream model performance
In a dynamic model, an initially good AI model induces greater human reliance on AI-assisted creation, which homogenizes content and creates a feedback loop that degrades the model's own performance — a phenomenon termed the "curse of precision."
Dynamic theoretical model and analysis presented in the paper showing feedback effects across training rounds; no empirical sample reported.
high negative Market Design for AI: Beyond the Copyright Binary AI model performance (degradation over time due to homogenized training data)
More innovative creators are especially harmed under the strong-IP regime — a phenomenon the paper terms the "originality penalty."
Analytical result derived from the static game model in the paper highlighting differential effects by creator innovativeness; theoretical characterization labeled "originality penalty."
high negative Market Design for AI: Beyond the Copyright Binary relative payoff/incentive for innovative creators
A regime of strong intellectual property rights, modeled as a static Stackelberg game, also fails to provide adequate creative incentives (it underpowers creative incentives).
Theoretical analysis using a static Stackelberg-game model developed in the paper; analytical results show reduced creator incentives under this regime.
high negative Market Design for AI: Beyond the Copyright Binary creative incentives / creator payoff
A "free-for-all" model based on fair use fails because it does not compensate creators for their contributions.
Analytical / conceptual argument presented in the paper (no empirical sample); model-based reasoning showing creators receive no compensation under a free-for-all regime.
high negative Market Design for AI: Beyond the Copyright Binary creator compensation
More than 70% of respondents cite organisational resistance as a barrier to digital adoption.
Industry MRO digital survey reported in the paper (more than 70% reported); method = secondary evidence from an industry MRO digital survey. Sample size not stated in abstract.
high negative Aviation 4.0: the impacts of digital transformation on the a... prevalence of organisational resistance cited as barriers
Over 80% of respondents cite data limitations as a barrier to scaling digital implementations.
Industry MRO digital survey reported in the paper (over 80% reported); method = secondary evidence from an industry MRO digital survey. Sample size not stated in abstract.
high negative Aviation 4.0: the impacts of digital transformation on the a... prevalence of data limitations cited as barriers
Only 6% of MROs have scaled digital and analytics across the enterprise.
Industry MRO digital survey reported in the paper (6% reported); method = secondary evidence from an industry MRO digital survey. Sample size not stated in abstract.
high negative Aviation 4.0: the impacts of digital transformation on the a... enterprise-scale implementation of digital and analytics
Unequal access to GenAI tools in higher education may exacerbate employability gaps and inequities among students.
Concern identified and discussed in the literature as summarized in the review article (conceptual/literature-based; no new empirical evidence reported).
high negative Instructing Higher Education in the Era of Generative AI: Im... inequality in employability outcomes due to unequal access to GenAI
GenAI raises concerns including passive dependence, weakened critical thinking, uncertain authorship, academic integrity breaches, algorithmic bias, unequal access, and employability gaps.
Synthesis of concerns reported in prior studies and discussions in the literature (review article); no new empirical data provided.
high negative Instructing Higher Education in the Era of Generative AI: Im... critical thinking and employability-related risks (academic integrity, bias, acc...
Agents do not reroute along the methodological axes humans use to bias their estimates.
Analytic comparison showing that when biased prompts are applied, agents change methodological choices but not along the particular methodological axes (choices) that human analysts exploit to bias estimates.
high negative AI Coding Agents in Social Science: Methodologically Diverse... alignment of changed methodological axes between agents and biased human analyst...
Benchmarking multiple state-of-the-art open and closed source VLMs on our evaluation framework demonstrates substantial limitations in current engineering reasoning capabilities.
Empirical claim based on the paper's benchmarking experiments using the EngVQA dataset and the 8-stage framework (models and detailed results not provided in the excerpt).
high negative Do VLMs Reason Like Engineers? A Benchmark and a Stage-wise ... engineering reasoning capabilities of state-of-the-art VLMs
Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate final answers and provide limited assessment of intermediate reasoning processes.
Claim in paper contrasting EngVQA's process-oriented evaluation with prior benchmarks (literature/benchmark review claim; no specific benchmarks or quantitative comparison provided in the excerpt).
high negative Do VLMs Reason Like Engineers? A Benchmark and a Stage-wise ... extent to which benchmarks assess intermediate reasoning processes
Failures in engineering reasoning by AI systems may produce physically invalid yet superficially plausible solutions, posing risks for engineering education, scientific assistance, and technical decision-making.
Argumentative claim in the paper highlighting potential risks of reasoning failures in high-stakes engineering contexts (motivational/background statement).
high negative Do VLMs Reason Like Engineers? A Benchmark and a Stage-wise ... risk of producing physically invalid but plausible solutions
Datasets are rarely standardized or shared.
Review synthesis and commentary across included studies and supplementary documents indicating limited data standardization and sharing.
high negative Artificial Intelligence-Driven Optimization in Pharmacy Inve... dataset standardization and data-sharing practices
Agents performed more weakly on a task requiring novel bioinformatics reasoning.
Reported ABC-Bench results indicating relatively lower agent scores on the task characterized by novel bioinformatics reasoning (authors' summary in the abstract).
high negative ABC-Bench: An Agentic Bio-Capabilities Benchmark for Biosecu... performance on novel bioinformatics reasoning task
Penerapan AI menimbulkan isu etika dan keamanan data yang memerlukan tata kelola AI yang bertanggung jawab.
Sistematis studi literatur yang menelaah 33 sumber ilmiah, laporan lembaga internasional, dan kebijakan terkait (n=33).
high negative Transformasi SDM di Era AI: Strategi Menjaga Daya Saing Tena... isu etika dan keamanan data terkait AI
AI meningkatkan risiko pengangguran pada sektor yang pekerjaannya bersifat rutin.
Sistematis studi literatur yang menelaah 33 sumber ilmiah, laporan lembaga internasional, dan kebijakan terkait (n=33).
high negative Transformasi SDM di Era AI: Strategi Menjaga Daya Saing Tena... risiko pengangguran bagi pekerja di pekerjaan rutin
Penerapan AI menyebabkan kesenjangan keterampilan (skill gap) antara kebutuhan pasar dan kemampuan tenaga kerja.
Sistematis studi literatur yang menelaah 33 sumber ilmiah, laporan lembaga internasional, dan kebijakan terkait (n=33).
Neither MCP nor A2A defines the shared workspace in which humans and agents perform accountable work together.
Analytical claim by the authors contrasting existing standards with the missing specification of a shared human-agent workspace; no empirical evaluation provided.
high negative Collaborative Human-Agent Protocol (CHAP) presence/absence of specifications for shared workspace in existing standards
In current practice the human judgement is recorded, if at all, in application code, chat threads, ticket comments, and tribal memory.
Descriptive statement about current recording practices; presented without empirical study or counts in the provided text.
high negative Collaborative Human-Agent Protocol (CHAP) location and durability of records of human judgement in workflows
The technical surface for this collaboration remains weakly specified.
Asserted by the authors as an assessment of current technical standards and interfaces; no audit or measurement cited in the provided text.
high negative Collaborative Human-Agent Protocol (CHAP) degree of specification/standardization of collaboration interfaces
Macro-level correlation between Frey-Osborne (2013) and Eloundou-era rankings is Spearman rho = -0.750, p = 0.020 (against the original Oxford Martin appendix), indicating inversion.
Reported Spearman correlation and p-value comparing macro-level rankings between the original Frey-Osborne appendix and the paper's Eloundou-era results.
high negative Stable Geometry, Reversing Poles: The Bipolar Structure of A... Spearman correlation between historical and current macro-level automation-risk ...
Tool-Mediated Physical (macro M2) has mean OAI = 0.054.
Reported macro-level mean OAI computed after projecting DWA OAI values into the 7-macro typology.
high negative Stable Geometry, Reversing Poles: The Bipolar Structure of A... mean Occupational Automation Index (OAI) for macro M2
Automated evaluators on which the community currently relies -- LLM-as-a-judge, artificial metrics, and even state-of-the-art (SOTA) models -- agree weakly with expert judgment.
Comparisons/correlations between automated evaluator outputs and human expert ratings showing weak agreement.
high negative Contemporary AI lacks the imagination to diverge or negate i... agreement/correlation between automated evaluators and expert human judgment
LLMs falter most in pluralistic fields like the social sciences that demand context-aware interpretation and evolving theories.
Field-level performance comparisons showing lower agreement/quality of LLM-generated ideas in pluralistic fields (social sciences) relative to more constrained fields (life sciences etc.).
high negative Contemporary AI lacks the imagination to diverge or negate i... LLM performance by field (agreement with expert judgment / idea quality)
Senior social scientists are the harshest critics, and their skepticism is well-earned.
Subgroup analysis by seniority and field indicating senior social scientists give lower ratings (more critical) than other subgroups; interpretation provided by authors.
high negative Contemporary AI lacks the imagination to diverge or negate i... stringency of ratings by seniority and field
Non-reasoning LLMs collapse into a narrow 'hivemind' of similar ideas.
Comparative analysis of idea outputs from different LLM classes showing reduced diversity/similarity concentration for non-reasoning models (as described in results).
high negative Contemporary AI lacks the imagination to diverge or negate i... diversity / similarity of generated ideas (creativity)
Board power disparity weakens the positive relationship between AI competitive actions and operational efficiency.
Interaction tests in the authors' empirical models using governance measures (power disparity) and NLP-identified AI actions from S&P 500 firms' press releases (2010–2022); reported as a negative conditional effect on operational efficiency.
high negative Competing With Artificial Intelligence: Board Governance And... operational efficiency (conditional on board power disparity)
This regulatory pressure creates a direct conflict between multi-stakeholder transparency and corporate data privacy.
Paper's conceptual argument describing a tension between transparency requirements and proprietary data protection; no empirical study provided.
high negative Trustworthy Smart Fabs via Professional Proxies: Scaling Saf... conflict between stakeholder transparency and corporate data privacy
Regulatory compliance demands have surpassed the capacity of manual corporate reporting.
Assertion in paper (conceptual observation about reporting capacity); no empirical measurement or sample size reported.
high negative Trustworthy Smart Fabs via Professional Proxies: Scaling Saf... capacity of manual corporate reporting to meet regulatory demands