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Evidence (3224 claims)

Adoption
7395 claims
Productivity
6507 claims
Governance
5877 claims
Human-AI Collaboration
5157 claims
Innovation
3492 claims
Org Design
3470 claims
Labor Markets
3224 claims
Skills & Training
2608 claims
Inequality
1835 claims

Evidence Matrix

Claim counts by outcome category and direction of finding.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 609 159 77 736 1615
Governance & Regulation 664 329 160 99 1273
Organizational Efficiency 624 143 105 70 949
Technology Adoption Rate 502 176 98 78 861
Research Productivity 348 109 48 322 836
Output Quality 391 120 44 40 595
Firm Productivity 385 46 85 17 539
Decision Quality 275 143 62 34 521
AI Safety & Ethics 183 241 59 30 517
Market Structure 152 154 109 20 440
Task Allocation 158 50 56 26 295
Innovation Output 178 23 38 17 257
Skill Acquisition 137 52 50 13 252
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 120 64 38 23 252
Employment Level 93 46 96 12 249
Firm Revenue 130 43 26 3 202
Consumer Welfare 99 51 40 11 201
Inequality Measures 36 105 40 6 187
Task Completion Time 134 18 6 5 163
Worker Satisfaction 79 54 16 11 160
Error Rate 64 78 8 1 151
Regulatory Compliance 69 64 14 3 150
Training Effectiveness 81 15 13 18 129
Wages & Compensation 70 25 22 6 123
Team Performance 74 16 21 9 121
Automation Exposure 41 48 19 9 120
Job Displacement 11 71 16 1 99
Developer Productivity 71 14 9 3 98
Hiring & Recruitment 49 7 8 3 67
Social Protection 26 14 8 2 50
Creative Output 26 14 6 2 49
Skill Obsolescence 5 37 5 1 48
Labor Share of Income 12 13 12 37
Worker Turnover 11 12 3 26
Industry 1 1
Clear
Labor Markets Remove filter
Digital transformation reconfigures development patterns across regions and countries, altering established trajectories of regional development.
Theoretical integration of a technology–labor–space framework together with comparative regional field evidence illustrating changing development patterns (no quantified effect sizes or sample sizes reported).
high mixed Automation, Migration, and Development: Geography of Job Pre... regional development patterns (spatial-economic reconfiguration)
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly reshaping knowledge-intensive work by automating, augmenting, and reconfiguring core professional activities.
Paper asserts this as a motivating observation based on prior literature and descriptive claims; no original empirical sample or quantified data reported.
high mixed AI-driven skill volatility and the emergence of re-skilling ... degree of automation/augmentation of professional tasks
Aggregate effects are geographically uneven (geographic unevenness in AI-driven labor market impacts).
Synthesis across studies observing variation by geography and noting non-Anglophone markets and developing economies as under-studied and differentially affected.
high mixed Creation, validation, obsolescence: observed evidence of AI-... geographic heterogeneity in labor market impacts
Wage polarization characterizes the aggregate pattern of labor market change associated with recent AI advances.
Aggregate characterization from synthesized studies reporting divergent wage outcomes (higher wages for AI-augmented workers, pressures on junior/routine roles) consistent with polarization.
high mixed Creation, validation, obsolescence: observed evidence of AI-... wage distribution changes (polarization)
Sectoral effects are heterogeneous: infrastructure, security, and quality-assurance roles have expanded while developer roles have contracted.
Qualitative and quantitative results aggregated across the included studies noting role-level expansions and contractions; no single pooled effect size provided.
high mixed Creation, validation, obsolescence: observed evidence of AI-... changes in employment/posting volumes by occupational role (infrastructure, secu...
Non-routine employment and wages exhibit a crossing pattern: initially higher under fast adoption, then lower — so faster adoption can simultaneously raise long-run wages for survivors while permanently reducing participation.
Comparative dynamic trajectories in the model showing time paths for non-routine employment and wages under fast vs. slow adoption scenarios (analytical and/or simulated model paths).
high mixed Too Fast to Adjust: Adoption Speed and the Permanent Cost of... non-routine employment and non-routine wages (time-path / crossing pattern)
Even when two economies share the same long-run automation level, adoption speed alone determines transition welfare.
Comparative-welfare analysis in the dynamic theoretical model holding long-run automation level fixed while varying adoption speed (analytical comparative statics).
Responses [about AI's effects] vary by cohort and depending on survey framing.
Paper asserts heterogeneity in survey responses across demographic cohorts and due to framing effects (no subgroup sample sizes or framing experiment details in excerpt).
high mixed AI’s Economy and Its Political and Institutional Consequence... variation in survey responses by cohort and framing
This [model divergence] may explain why public opinion is not settled about the effects of AI.
Paper's interpretive claim linking model divergence to unsettled public opinion (presented as a plausible explanation; no causal test or survey linkage provided in excerpt).
high mixed AI’s Economy and Its Political and Institutional Consequence... public opinion about AI's effects
Current models about the vulnerability level of occupations and economic sectors differ widely in their forecasts.
Paper's comparative statement about existing models and their forecasts (no specific models, quantitative comparisons, or sample sizes provided in the excerpt).
high mixed AI’s Economy and Its Political and Institutional Consequence... disagreement across model forecasts of occupational/sector vulnerability
The rapid emergence of agentic AI tools raises new questions that the political science discipline must address.
Epilogue of the report raises agentic AI tools as a rapidly emerging phenomenon and lists questions for the discipline; based on expert judgment and forward-looking analysis rather than empirical measurement in the introduction/epilogue.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... policy and research questions arising from agentic AI capabilities (norms, accou...
AI will affect political science research and teaching.
Report introduction explicitly notes the report investigates implications for political science research and teaching; based on the task force's review and analysis rather than a quantitative study.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... research methods, replicability, teaching practices, and curriculum in political...
AI will affect public opinion and the information ecosystem.
Introductory chapter enumerates public opinion and the information ecosystem as report topics; based on conceptual synthesis and literature review.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... public opinion formation and information ecosystem integrity (misinformation, pe...
AI will affect the labor market.
Report introduction identifies the labor market as an area the task force examines; presented as a conceptual claim without primary-sample estimates in the introduction.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... labor market outcomes (employment, occupational change, job tasks)
AI will affect international relations.
Introductory chapter lists international relations as a topic the report investigates; claim arises from conceptual analysis and synthesis by task force authors.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... international relations dynamics (state behavior, diplomacy, conflict/cooperatio...
AI will affect national security.
Report introduction stating a section addressing national security implications; based on expert assessment and literature review rather than a specific empirical sample.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... national security capabilities and decision-making (defense, intelligence operat...
AI will affect public administration.
Report introduction describing a section focused on how AI will affect public administration; based on expert synthesis rather than reported empirical study.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... public administration processes and organizational efficiency (service delivery,...
AI will affect democracy (i.e., democratic processes and institutions).
Report introduction listing a section of the report devoted to democracy and AI; conceptual argumentation rather than reported empirical tests.
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... democratic processes and institutions (electoral integrity, civic participation,...
AI has the potential to reshape politics and political science, similar to how it is transforming other social phenomena and academic fields.
Introductory chapter of the APSA Presidential Task Force report; conceptual framing and literature synthesis by the task force authors (no primary empirical sample reported).
high mixed Introduction: Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Politic... scope and practice of politics and political science as fields (institutional ro...
There are factor-share consequences from agent adoption (i.e., implications for the shares of income accruing to factors such as labor and capital).
Model-based discussion and comparative-static analysis in the paper deriving implications for factor shares as agents/compute capital alter production technology. The excerpt indicates qualitative/theoretical analysis rather than empirical measurement.
high mixed Who Prices Cognitive Labor in the Age of Agents? A Position ... factor shares (e.g., labor share vs capital share)
The CAW result generalizes through CES aggregation and, when tasks are separated into substitutable versus complementary, yields a directional inversion of skill-biased technical change.
Theoretical extension of the core model using CES (constant elasticity of substitution) aggregation and task decomposition in the paper; the claim arises from model generalization and comparative-static reasoning. No empirical validation provided in the excerpt.
high mixed Who Prices Cognitive Labor in the Age of Agents? A Position ... direction of skill-biased technical change (which skills gain/lose relative retu...
Agents are not labor; they are a production technology that converts compute capital K_c into effective units of cognitive labor L_A.
Theoretical argument and definitional framing in the paper: the authors recast agents as a technology that transforms compute capital into effective cognitive labor units within an analytical model (textual/theoretical exposition). No empirical sample or experimental data reported in the excerpt.
high mixed Who Prices Cognitive Labor in the Age of Agents? A Position ... classification of agents (technology vs labor)
Routine automation primarily dismantles specialised physical skills, enhancing mobility only within homogeneous manual clusters.
Simulation results distinguishing effects of the routine-task automation exposure measure vs. AI exposure; analysis of which skill types are eroded and resulting changes in mobility within occupational clusters.
high mixed Contrasting pathways of automation: routine task substitutio... skill_obsolescence and within-cluster mobility
Modeling fiscal policy as a government problem (instead of an abstract planner) implies a tax changes the firm's automation first-order condition, raises revenue only on the remaining automation base, and requires specifying rebates and administrative losses.
Explicit governmental optimization and budget-accounting setup in the model: taxes enter firms' automation first-order conditions; revenue is computed on post-tax automation activity and rebates/administration are modeled.
high mixed The Demand Externality of Automation effect of taxation on firm automation choice, tax revenue base, and fiscal accou...
The central analytic object is the derivative of household consumption demand and the collective wage bill with respect to automation.
Paper's stated modeling focus: comparative-static derivatives linking automation to household consumption demand and aggregate wages; used to characterize incidence and welfare effects.
high mixed The Demand Externality of Automation sensitivity (derivative) of household consumption demand and aggregate wage bill...
Automation reallocates income and ownership claims.
Theoretical model with heterogeneous households who hold capital/equity claims; equilibrium determines wages and returns and shows changes in income and ownership shares when automation increases.
high mixed The Demand Externality of Automation distribution of income and ownership (capital vs. labor income shares)
Institutional expertise (such as that created or possessed by universities and corporations) is viewed as in need of liberation or reform so it can be incorporated into the latest artificial intelligence systems.
Analysis of public communications from five annotation organizations and their CEOs indicating calls or framing that institutional knowledge should be freed/restructured to be integrated into AI systems.
high mixed Cheap Expertise: Mapping and Challenging Industry Perspectiv... attitudes toward institutional reform for AI integration / institutional knowled...
Demand for expert-annotated data on the part of leading AI labs has created an expert gig economy with the potential to reshape white collar work and society's understanding of expertise.
Qualitative analysis of public communications (social media feeds and podcast appearances) from five industry data annotation organizations and their CEOs; sample of five organizations and their public-facing leaders.
high mixed Cheap Expertise: Mapping and Challenging Industry Perspectiv... creation of an expert gig economy / effects on white-collar work and public unde...
Program outcomes are moderated by a person's prior occupational skill set, their area of work, and features of the local economy.
Heterogeneity analyses across subgroups defined by prior occupational skill composition, industry/area of work, and local labor-market conditions in the WIOA administrative data (2017-2023) show variation in outcomes.
high mixed Did US Worker Retraining Reduce Participant Automation Expos... Retrainability Index / program outcomes stratified by prior skill set, area of w...
These divergences carry direct implications for policy interventions.
Interpretation/conclusion drawn from the divergence between RL Feasibility Index and existing measures (policy implication claimed by authors).
high mixed What Jobs Can AI Learn? Measuring Exposure by Reinforcement ... policy relevance of measurement divergences
Generative AI-powered tools like ChatGPT are reshaping market skill demands while also offering new forms of on-demand learning support to meet those demands.
Framed in paper as background/motivation; asserted from prior literature and the paper's motivating claims rather than reported as a quantified result in this study.
high mixed Upskilling with Generative AI: Practices and Challenges for ... impact of generative AI on market skill demands and availability of on-demand le...
The rise of digital agents will transform the foundations of production, labour markets, institutional arrangements and the international distribution of economic power.
Synthesis and theoretical projection across sections of the paper; presented as a broad conclusion without reported empirical quantification in the provided text.
high mixed DIGITAL AGENTS AS FUNCTIONAL EQUIVALENTS OF ECONOMIC ACTORS:... transformation of production systems, labour markets, institutions, and internat...
There is a fundamental asymmetry between economic and social reproduction: digital agents can compensate for productive functions of the population but are unable to substitute the population's functions of social reproduction.
Theoretical argument and conceptual distinction in the paper; no empirical study measuring substitution in social reproduction provided.
high mixed DIGITAL AGENTS AS FUNCTIONAL EQUIVALENTS OF ECONOMIC ACTORS:... capacity of digital agents to substitute productive vs social reproduction funct...
These patterns suggest that AI adoption is associated with expected efficiency gains that shape both firms' pricing behaviour and their macroeconomic expectations.
Interpretation based on observed increases in productivity/profitability and different pricing/inflation expectations among adopters vs non-adopters in survey and DID analyses.
high mixed The economic impact of artificial intelligence: evidence fro... interpretive link between productivity/profitability gains and firms' pricing an...
The rapid growth of AI and automation offers Sub-Saharan Africa economic opportunities as well as labor market challenges.
Systematic review of the literature reported in the paper; scope and number of studies not specified in the abstract/summary provided.
high mixed The Impact of AI-Driven Automation on Semi and Unskilled Wor... economic opportunities and labor market challenges in Sub‑Saharan Africa
AI adoption leads both to job displacement and job creation, including the emergence of new occupational categories.
Abstract states the review examines empirical evidence on both job displacement and creation and the emergence of new occupations; no numeric counts or sample sizes provided in abstract.
high mixed AI and the Transformation of Human Employment: Challenges, O... job destruction and creation; emergence of new occupations
The study identifies short-term transitional risks and long-term productivity gains associated with AI integration in the workforce.
Abstract states the paper evaluates both short-term risks and long-term productivity gains from AI integration based on the reviewed literature; no empirical quantification given in abstract.
high mixed AI and the Transformation of Human Employment: Challenges, O... transitional risks and productivity gains
AI-driven automation and augmentation are reshaping employment landscapes, with emphasis on sector-level disruption, skill transformation, and socioeconomic consequences.
Abstract states this as a conclusion of the review drawing on interdisciplinary empirical literature; no specific studies or sample sizes cited in abstract.
high mixed AI and the Transformation of Human Employment: Challenges, O... employment landscape changes (sector disruption, skill transformation, socioecon...
The accelerating deployment of artificial intelligence across industries has fundamentally altered the structure of global labour markets.
Statement in abstract summarizing a systematic review of interdisciplinary literature (economics, computer science, organizational behaviour, public policy); no specific sample size reported in abstract.
high mixed AI and the Transformation of Human Employment: Challenges, O... structure of global labour markets
The magnitude of AI’s effect on potential GDP varied across industries and depended on the level of digital maturity, human resources, and institutional conditions.
Decompositional analysis across aggregated industry data and scenario-based modeling drawing on sectoral sources and reviews.
high mixed THE IMPACT OF AI ON POTENTIAL GDP AND LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GRO... industry-specific magnitude of AI contribution to GDP
Firms may continue to exist as legal and physical entities, but their coordinating function will be displaced as they become data nodes within regionally governed AI infrastructure.
Predictive/conceptual claim within the framework; no empirical sample reported in the excerpt and presented as a theoretical outcome of Interface Internalization.
high mixed Structural Dissolution: How Artificial Intelligence Dismantl... change in the coordinating role of firms (from coordinators to data nodes)
The Structural Dissolution Framework challenges the Coasian view that organizational boundaries are determined by transaction cost minimization, arguing that AI makes such boundaries economically obsolete.
Theoretical critique of transaction-cost-based explanations for firm boundaries presented in the paper; argumentative and conceptual rather than supported by empirical tests in the provided summary.
high mixed Structural Dissolution: How Artificial Intelligence Dismantl... economic relevance of transaction-cost-based firm boundaries
Regional data sovereignty entities will emerge as organizational forms that replace the coordinating role of firms and markets.
Normative/predictive claim within the paper's framework arguing for new organizational forms (regional data sovereignty entities); illustrated conceptually (e.g., through resource-dependent regional economies) rather than empirically tested in the provided text.
high mixed Structural Dissolution: How Artificial Intelligence Dismantl... emergence of regional data sovereignty entities as coordinators
Domain-specific data refinement infrastructure will become the new basis of positional control in industries.
Theoretical claim in the framework asserting a shift in positional control to data refinement infrastructure; presented as a predicted structural outcome rather than supported by empirical data in the provided text.
high mixed Structural Dissolution: How Artificial Intelligence Dismantl... basis of positional control (movement to data refinement infrastructure)
AI adoption moves value creation away from physical resources and human collaboration toward continuous token flows produced through data refinement loops.
Theoretical/analytical claim within the Structural Dissolution Framework and illustrative discussion; no empirical quantification provided in the text excerpt.
high mixed Structural Dissolution: How Artificial Intelligence Dismantl... source of value creation (physical/human → data/token flows)
The mechanism driving this restructuring is 'Interface Internalization', through which inter-agent coordination is absorbed into intra-system computation.
Conceptual mechanism defined and argued in the paper; presented as the central theoretical mechanism rather than as an empirically validated finding.
high mixed Structural Dissolution: How Artificial Intelligence Dismantl... shift of coordination from inter-agent (firms/markets) to intra-system computati...
AI dissolves the boundaries that once separated firms, markets, experts, and consumers by internalizing human multimodal interfaces (language, vision, and behavioral data) into computational systems.
Theoretical argument and conceptual framework introduced in the paper (Structural Dissolution Framework); no empirical sample or quantitative analysis reported for this claim in the text provided.
high mixed Structural Dissolution: How Artificial Intelligence Dismantl... dissolution of boundaries between firms, markets, experts, and consumers
AI-driven automation marks the beginning of a new political era—one in which the role of work in society becomes a central axis of welfare conflict.
Theoretical and interpretive claim in the paper, motivated by the survey findings and broader argumentation about political consequences.
high mixed AI, the Future of Work, and the Politics of the Welfare Stat... political salience of 'the role of work' in welfare politics / emergence of new ...
Demographic characteristics intersect with AI exposure—i.e., exposure varies by demographic groups.
Paper reports that it examines how demographic characteristics intersect with exposure based on recent empirical studies; no demographic breakdowns or sample sizes provided in the abstract.
high mixed AI Displacement Risk in the Labor Market: Evidence, Exposure... variation in AI exposure across demographic groups
Recent studies combine task-level exposure metrics with employment and usage data to assess AI exposure and impacts.
Paper notes that it draws on studies that use task-level exposure metrics alongside employment and usage data; methodological claim rather than a quantitative result.
high mixed AI Displacement Risk in the Labor Market: Evidence, Exposure... measurement approach for AI exposure (task-level exposure linked to employment/u...