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Home Papers Evidence Explore Trends Syntheses Digests About 🎲 Workforce Futures
Direction, evidence grade, and study type are AI-generated labels (gpt-5-mini), not human-verified. Syntheses are LLM-written. "Tensions" are machine-detected candidates, not confirmed contradictions. A research-acceleration tool, not peer review. How this is built →

Evidence (7560 claims)

Search and filter individual claims pulled from the papers. Looking for a specific finding ("what's the effect on wages?"), you're in the right place. Want to compare whole outcome categories against each other instead? Use the Evidence Explorer.

The board below groups claims two ways: by broad theme (nine paper-level topics) and by outcome category (the 34 claim-level outcomes that the Explorer and Syntheses also use).

Browse by theme

Nine broad, paper-level topics. Click one to filter the claims below.

Adoption
9875 claims
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Productivity
8807 claims
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Governance
7870 claims
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Human-AI Collaboration
7560 claims
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Org Design
4892 claims
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Innovation
4781 claims
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Labor Markets
4004 claims
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Skills & Training
3308 claims
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Inequality
2332 claims
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Claims by outcome category

Counts by direction of finding. These are the same 34 outcome categories the Explorer compares and the Syntheses are written for. A linked row has a published synthesis.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 870 233 116 1066 2363
Governance & Regulation 976 451 218 133 1809
Organizational Efficiency 949 224 144 88 1416
Technology Adoption Rate 764 287 141 122 1325
Research Productivity 501 152 74 362 1101
Output Quality 542 216 69 69 896
Decision Quality 387 198 94 54 740
Firm Productivity 513 67 101 27 714
AI Safety & Ethics 249 303 73 36 667
Market Structure 190 192 134 27 548
Task Allocation 243 77 91 36 452
Innovation Output 291 33 55 20 401
Skill Acquisition 206 72 65 21 364
Employment Level 133 63 115 22 335
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 153 79 52 32 323
Task Completion Time 206 37 12 15 272
Firm Revenue 179 52 29 5 266
Consumer Welfare 130 76 47 13 266
Inequality Measures 48 137 51 6 242
Worker Satisfaction 101 81 25 13 220
Error Rate 84 110 11 5 210
Wages & Compensation 98 47 30 10 185
Regulatory Compliance 88 73 17 7 185
Automation Exposure 66 64 33 16 182
Team Performance 105 29 30 11 176
Training Effectiveness 109 22 14 21 168
Developer Productivity 114 21 14 8 158
Job Displacement 12 90 24 1 127
Hiring & Recruitment 57 9 9 5 80
Skill Obsolescence 6 56 9 1 72
Social Protection 43 17 8 2 70
Creative Output 35 21 9 4 70
Labor Share of Income 18 21 17 1 57
Worker Turnover 15 16 4 35
Industry 1 1
Clear
Human Ai Collab Remove filter
Workers were assigned to no overrides, free overrides, or a two-per-machine limit on downward overrides.
Experimental design statement in paper: randomized assignment into three arms (no overrides, free overrides, constrained two-per-machine downward override limit).
high null result A Simple Solution to Improving Human Supervision of Algorith... Treatment assignment (experimental arms)
We tested [the policy] through a randomized field experiment with 553 workers at a major Chinese smart vending machine retailer that manages more than 59,000 machines and 4,000 SKUs.
Randomized field experiment described in paper; sample stated as 553 workers and operational context (retailer with >59,000 machines and >4,000 SKUs).
high null result A Simple Solution to Improving Human Supervision of Algorith... Experimental implementation / sample and setting description
The runs spanned several model generations, two agent harnesses, two reasoning effort levels, a testing tool, and two design oriented prompts.
Description of experimental conditions reported in the study (factors varied across the 90 runs).
high null result Reasoning effort, not tool access, buys first-try reliabilit... experimental condition coverage (model generation, harness, effort level, testin...
Ninety independent agent runs built the same application from one detailed specification, each scored on a fixed 14-criterion functional rubric (42 point maximum) and a visual quality review.
Experimental study described in the paper: 90 independent agent runs, single specification, evaluated on a 14-criterion rubric (42-point max) plus visual quality review.
high null result Reasoning effort, not tool access, buys first-try reliabilit... functional score (14-criterion rubric) and visual quality review
The framework is intended primarily as a scholarly contribution to clarify the conceptual landscape and support future theoretical and empirical work, not as prescriptive guidance for practitioners.
Authors' explicit statement of intent in the abstract describing the purpose and scope of the proposed framework.
high null result Mapping Human–AI Relationships: Intellectual Structure and C... intended purpose of the framework (scholarly vs. prescriptive)
The authors propose a conceptual framework that classifies human–AI relationships into four categories—symbiotic, augmented, assisted, and substituted intelligence—according to the level of AI autonomy and human involvement.
Authors' conceptual synthesis and proposal based on thematic mapping and literature synthesis (framework described in abstract as an output of analysis).
high null result Mapping Human–AI Relationships: Intellectual Structure and C... categorization of human–AI relationship types by autonomy and human involvement
This study employs a bibliometric co-word analysis of 4093 peer-reviewed documents indexed in Scopus to map the intellectual structure of the field.
Authors report performing a bibliometric co-word analysis on 4,093 peer-reviewed documents from the Scopus database (method stated in abstract).
high null result Mapping Human–AI Relationships: Intellectual Structure and C... use of bibliometric co-word analysis on 4093 documents
The docs CLI used in the constrained condition is approximately 200 lines of code (~200 LoC).
Paper text states the CLI used is about 200 lines of code.
high null result Steerability via constraints: a substrate for scalable overs... tool size (lines of code)
We report a controlled experiment in scalable oversight: a small reviewer (Gemma 4 e4b) inspects a Python codebase containing 11 inserted backdoors.
Described controlled experiment in the paper: a single automated reviewer (Gemma 4 e4b) evaluated a Python codebase where the authors inserted 11 backdoors.
high null result Steerability via constraints: a substrate for scalable overs... detection of inserted backdoors
The study relies on secondary evidence from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD, IMF, Stanford AI Index, McKinsey Global Institute, NBER, and recent experimental research published from 2020 onward.
Explicit methodological statement in the paper.
high null result Effect of Artificial Intelligence Adoption on Labour Product... data sources and evidence base
The paper synthesizes evidence drawing on reports from the World Economic Forum, PwC, McKinsey Global Institute, Gartner, and the International Monetary Fund.
Literature/report synthesis explicitly described in the paper (citation list to those organizations).
high null result AI-Driven Workforce Transformation: Displacement, Opportunit... sources and scope of evidence used in the paper
An evaluation agenda is outlined for future artifact development and evaluation.
Paper includes a proposed agenda for future empirical evaluation and artifact development (conceptual/recommendation content).
high null result Mitigating Attention Bias in Index-Fund Investment: AI-Enabl... future research and evaluation plans
Research on AI-enabled decision support in the index-fund context remains limited.
Finding from the paper's progressive systematic literature review (statement of limited prior research; number of studies not provided in excerpt).
high null result Mitigating Attention Bias in Index-Fund Investment: AI-Enabl... extent of empirical/theoretical research on AI-enabled decision support for inde...
Through a progressive systematic literature review, this study finds that incorporating cognitive-bias mechanisms as design drivers in AI-enabled investment artifacts has not been studied.
Progressive systematic literature review reported in the paper (review method stated; specific number of papers not provided in the excerpt).
high null result Mitigating Attention Bias in Index-Fund Investment: AI-Enabl... presence/absence of design practices in AI-enabled investment artifact literatur...
These pilot findings motivate a pre-registered replication that is now in preparation.
Statement in the paper reporting intention to run a pre-registered replication study following the pilot.
high null result Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelli... planned pre-registered replication
The results are preliminary but statistically robust.
Authors' characterization of the pilot findings (explicit statement in the paper indicating preliminary status and statistical robustness).
high null result Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelli... statistical significance / robustness of reported pilot effects
Raw cognitive ability or model benchmark metrics did not distinguish who engaged in complementary reasoning.
Pilot study reports lack of predictive power from cognitive ability measures and model benchmark scores for identifying participants who achieved complementary, high-performing collaboration.
high null result Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelli... engagement in complementary reasoning (prediction by cognitive ability / model b...
Most participants deferred to the model, producing forecasts that matched the model's predictions.
Statement in the paper summarizing distribution of individual behaviors in the pilot (majority reported as deferring/matching the model).
high null result Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelli... degree of agreement with model predictions / matching rate
The study used a real-money prediction market (Polymarket) as an objective, externally resolved benchmark.
Pilot study described in the paper explicitly states use of Polymarket as an external, real-money benchmark for forecast resolution.
high null result Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelli... benchmark outcomes (Polymarket market prices / resolution)
Awards do not increase user activity and downstream impact.
Reported experimental finding from the Reddit field experiment described in the paper; the authors compare subsequent user behavior (volume and downstream impact) after receiving symbolic awards with different rationales. Sample size not reported in the abstract.
high null result A field experiment of social influence and behavioral contag... user activity (volume) and downstream impact
In fixed-unit subsets where complexity rose (Python on the cognitive metric, and all languages on the cyclomatic metric), newcomer participation does not decline.
Subgroup (fixed-unit) analyses that split units by whether complexity rose; DiD estimates within subsets show no decline in newcomer participation despite increases in complexity.
high null result Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Ca... newcomer participation in subsets where code complexity increased
A sparse, correlational beginner-task measure (good-first-issue labels) shows no decline, but we cannot test it for parallel trends.
Correlational analysis of frequency of 'good-first-issue' labels before and after adoption; authors note inability to test parallel trends for this measure.
high null result Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Ca... availability/number of beginner-task labels (good-first-issue)
Onboarding and retention are unchanged after adoption.
Difference-in-differences estimates comparing onboarding and retention metrics between adopting projects and matched non-adopting controls; reported as no significant change post-adoption.
high null result Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Ca... onboarding and retention of newcomers
We find no evidence of crowding-out: across estimators newcomer inflow shows no significant decline after adoption (point estimates run from a small increase to, under the most conservative trend specification, a slight and insignificant dip).
Difference-in-differences analysis against matched non-adopting controls, applied to 603 adopters with pre-adoption periods; multiple estimators and trend specifications reported.
high null result Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Ca... newcomer inflow (new contributors joining projects)
We recruited 1,283 participants to play iterated Collective Risk Games in small groups.
Statement of sample recruitment and experimental procedure in the paper (iterated Collective Risk Games; total N = 1,283).
high null result AI Persuasive Framing in Collective Dilemmas study sample / experimental participants
We analyze more than 930,000 agent-authored pull requests.
Descriptive statement about the dataset used for the study: an analysis of >930,000 pull requests authored by autonomous coding agents.
high null result Govern the Repository, Not the Agent: Measuring Ecosystem-Le... number of agent-authored pull requests analyzed
ATHENA is not presented as a validated measurement instrument; rather, it is a conceptual and methodological scaffold for empirical validation and responsible organizational experimentation.
Explicit qualification in the paper that ATHENA is a conceptual scaffold and has not been validated as a measurement instrument (stated limitation).
high null result Reconceptualizing Competence through Facets: ATHENA as a Str... validation status of ATHENA as a measurement instrument
We hired 49 programmers to interact with GitHub Copilot to assess 148 HIPAA-derived NFRs against the iTrust codebase across three dimensions: requirement satisfaction level, reasoning, and code localization.
Study design reported in the paper: recruitment of 49 programmers, 148 NFR assessments, use of GitHub Copilot and iTrust codebase, and three specified assessment dimensions.
high null result Accuracy and Satisfaction in Multi-Turn LLM Dialogues for NF... study sample and experimental setup
Evaluating how well LLM-based dialogue systems support collaborative reasoning about NFRs requires methods that go beyond single-turn accuracy to capture both the correctness of system outputs and the quality of multi-turn interaction.
Methodological argument presented by the authors to motivate multi-turn study design (conceptual / methodological claim).
high null result Accuracy and Satisfaction in Multi-Turn LLM Dialogues for NF... evaluation methodology adequacy for NFR assessment
Non-Functional Requirements (NFRs) are inherently vague, context-dependent, and involve many parts of a program, making them difficult to assess with single-turn correctness benchmarks.
Conceptual claim motivating the study, based on properties of NFRs discussed in the paper (no empirical measurement reported for this claim).
high null result Accuracy and Satisfaction in Multi-Turn LLM Dialogues for NF... characteristics of NFRs (vagueness, context-dependence, broad code impact)
LLM-based dialogue assistants have become mainstream tools for software developers, yet current evaluation benchmarks focus exclusively on functional correctness.
Positioning statement in the paper's introduction / literature overview (no new empirical data reported for this claim).
high null result Accuracy and Satisfaction in Multi-Turn LLM Dialogues for NF... scope of evaluation benchmarks (functional correctness focus)
The same model rebuilt to withhold answers erased the harm (i.e., removed the negative effect on unaided exam performance).
Reported as a finding from the same causal evidence referenced above (details of the study design and sample size not provided in the excerpt).
high null result The Effortless Trap: Productive Struggle, AI, and the Illusi... score on an unaided exam (difference relative to control)
The study contrasts usage across three populations: external personal-account users, external organizational-account users, and workers within OpenAI using an automated, privacy-protecting pipeline.
Methodological description in the paper stating the populations compared and the privacy-preserving data pipeline used.
high null result The Shift to Agentic AI: Evidence from Codex methodological scope (populations compared)
We model misalignment as an information advantage: the AI sender observes the world state (a bit string) while the human receiver only has a prior and acts after seeing the sender's signal.
Model specification and definitions in the paper (conceptual/theoretical modeling choice).
high null result Quantifying Theoretical AI Alignment Guarantees: Receiver-Ut... model structure / information transfer mechanism
This study is the first to theorize the relationship between organizations' agentic AI adoption and circular procurement performance.
Author statement in the abstract claiming novelty of theory contribution (literature review / positioning claim).
high null result Agentic AI and Circular Procurement Performance: An Empirica... novelty of theoretical contribution
The analysis in the paper was conducted using covariance-based structural equation modeling (CB-SEM) and a Process analytical method.
Methods described in the abstract (explicitly names the analytical techniques used).
high null result Agentic AI and Circular Procurement Performance: An Empirica... analytical methods used
Data for this study were collected from a developing nation.
Explicit statement in the abstract indicating the sample source/setting for the empirical data.
high null result Agentic AI and Circular Procurement Performance: An Empirica... study sample/source (geographic setting)
The benchmark includes controlled evaluation settings for local improvement, cross-task transfer, cross-role transfer, and cross-model generalization.
Paper description of benchmark design and experimental protocol specifying controlled evaluation settings for local improvement, cross-task transfer, cross-role transfer, and cross-model generalization.
high null result Managing Procedural Memory in LLM Agents: Control, Adaptatio... availability of controlled evaluation settings
We introduce AFTER, a benchmark of 382 realistic enterprise tasks spanning six professional roles and 22 procedural skills.
Description of benchmark dataset introduced in the paper; the paper reports the benchmark contains 382 tasks, covers six professional roles and 22 procedural skills (dataset construction / annotation process described in methods).
high null result Managing Procedural Memory in LLM Agents: Control, Adaptatio... benchmark size and coverage (number of tasks, roles, skills)
When restricted to multi-commit PRs, the Copilot within-repo effect dissolves to +4.8 percentage points (p = 0.59).
Subset analysis limited to multi-commit PRs for Copilot in the AIDev dataset; reported point estimate and p-value.
high null result Beyond Simpson's Paradox: A Cascade of Confounders in AI Age... PR merge rate (Copilot co-authorship effect in multi-commit PR subset)
Within-repository controls eliminate Devin's co-authorship gap, reducing it from +33.5 percentage points to +1.6 pp (p = 0.73).
Within-repo controlled regression/analysis on Devin PRs in the AIDev dataset showing adjusted effect and p-value.
high null result Beyond Simpson's Paradox: A Cascade of Confounders in AI Age... PR merge rate (Devin co-authorship effect before and after within-repo control)
During experiments, the original Finance Agent v2 harness basically failed to deliver any output related to the SpaceX S-1 filing, due to document length.
Authors' experimental observation reporting failure of the original Finance Agent v2 harness to produce output for the SpaceX S-1 file; reason given: document length.
high null result IPO Finance Agent: Evaluation of LLM Financial Analysts beyo... ability to produce output / retrieval success
Artificial intelligence is taking on advising functions and automating both the production of student work and employer-side candidate screening.
Statement in the essay (perspective/argumentative piece). The claim is supported as a conceptual observation drawing on literature on AI adoption; no empirical sample or quantified measurement reported.
high null result Vouching towards Bethlehem: what colleges and universities o... degree of automation of advising, student work production, and candidate screeni...
We conclude by outlining implications for designing and evaluating human-AI teams as socio-technical systems and for prioritizing longitudinal and in-context studies that capture how teaming evolves over time.
Authors' conclusions and recommendations based on the systematic review and observed gaps in the literature (noted need for longitudinal, in-context studies).
high null result From testbeds to high-stakes work: a review of Human-AI team... research_design_priorities (longitudinal and in-context evaluation)
Bibliometric patterns suggest a shift since 2020 from foundational demonstrations in controlled settings toward applied, higher-stakes contexts where trust dynamics, communication, and ethical accountability more directly shape adoption and sustained performance.
Bibliometric analysis of the 104 studies showing temporal trends (pre- vs post-2020) in research contexts and topics.
high null result From testbeds to high-stakes work: a review of Human-AI team... temporal_shift_in_research_contexts (prevalence of applied/higher-stakes context...
Across studies, performance was the most frequently examined aspect, followed by trust, explainability and transparency, decision-making, and team processes.
Synthesis and frequency coding of outcomes/measured constructs across the 104 included empirical studies.
high null result From testbeds to high-stakes work: a review of Human-AI team... performance (and ranked prevalence of constructs like trust, explainability, dec...
Gaming and entertainment, aviation, military and defense operations, emergency response and public safety, and healthcare also represented substantial portions of the literature.
Domain breakdown from the systematic review of 104 empirical studies (frequency counts by domain reported in Results).
high null result From testbeds to high-stakes work: a review of Human-AI team... study_domain_representation_by_industry
Cross-domain and interdisciplinary studies were the largest category, representing broad workplace or team-based investigations not tied to a single industry and instead focused on general collaboration issues such as communication, teamwork, coordination, and coworker interaction.
Categorization / coding of the 104 included empirical studies; frequency counts by study domain reported in review.
high null result From testbeds to high-stakes work: a review of Human-AI team... study_domain_prevalence
We conducted a PRISMA-guided systematic review with bibliometric analysis of 104 peer-reviewed empirical studies published between 2015 and 2025 and identified through Engineering Village, IEEE Xplore, PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science.
Methods reported in paper: PRISMA-guided systematic review and bibliometric analysis; explicit statement of 104 peer-reviewed empirical studies and databases searched (Engineering Village, IEEE Xplore, PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science).
high null result From testbeds to high-stakes work: a review of Human-AI team... number_of_studies_reviewed
Order, entropy, information, and useful energy are task-dependent and system-relative concepts whose meanings depend on the objectives of the system.
Conceptual argument and discussion in the paper about the context-dependence of informational and energetic notions within the proposed framework; no empirical evidence provided.