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Evidence (4114 claims)

Adoption
8570 claims
Productivity
7631 claims
Governance
6869 claims
Human-AI Collaboration
6491 claims
Org Design
4175 claims
Innovation
4114 claims
Labor Markets
3566 claims
Skills & Training
2966 claims
Inequality
2066 claims

Evidence Matrix

Claim counts by outcome category and direction of finding.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 758 199 100 900 2007
Governance & Regulation 826 400 191 122 1563
Organizational Efficiency 777 193 124 84 1189
Technology Adoption Rate 635 233 124 97 1098
Research Productivity 422 128 57 336 954
Output Quality 476 179 59 47 761
Decision Quality 328 177 81 47 640
Firm Productivity 435 57 88 20 606
AI Safety & Ethics 218 277 65 33 599
Market Structure 180 170 123 24 502
Task Allocation 213 64 72 33 387
Skill Acquisition 170 61 61 17 309
Innovation Output 203 27 43 18 292
Employment Level 105 54 107 13 281
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 131 69 43 26 276
Consumer Welfare 117 63 42 11 233
Firm Revenue 153 48 26 3 230
Task Completion Time 173 31 8 12 225
Inequality Measures 44 122 49 6 221
Worker Satisfaction 89 65 22 12 188
Error Rate 69 92 10 2 173
Regulatory Compliance 77 69 14 5 165
Automation Exposure 56 56 26 13 154
Training Effectiveness 94 21 13 19 149
Wages & Compensation 77 36 25 6 144
Team Performance 86 17 27 10 141
Developer Productivity 95 17 14 6 133
Job Displacement 12 80 20 1 113
Hiring & Recruitment 52 7 8 3 70
Creative Output 31 18 8 3 61
Skill Obsolescence 5 46 6 1 58
Social Protection 27 16 8 2 53
Labor Share of Income 17 19 17 53
Worker Turnover 11 12 3 26
Industry 1 1
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Innovation Remove filter
Universal Basic Income (UBI), absent a revolutionary threat that historically forced redistribution, will default to a pacification mechanism rather than a genuine solution to mass loss of labor value.
Normative/incentive-structure analysis and historical comparison presented in the paper; no empirical trial data or sample sizes cited in the abstract.
high negative The Great Compression: Geopolitical Fragmentation, AI, and t... effectiveness of UBI (redistribution vs. pacification)
Unlike previous feudal orders, this AI-enabled feudal order may be uniquely resistant to revolution because enforcement mechanisms (autonomous weapons, AI surveillance, algorithmic propaganda) do not require human cooperation and therefore cannot be undermined by human dissent.
Conceptual argument drawing on descriptions of autonomous weapons, surveillance, and propaganda systems; presented as a theoretical vulnerability analysis rather than empirically validated case studies in the abstract.
high negative The Great Compression: Geopolitical Fragmentation, AI, and t... resilience of oppressive enforcement to revolutionary action
The convergence of geopolitical fragmentation and AI-driven economic concentration could produce a structural transformation that stabilizes into a neo-feudal equilibrium, in which a vanishingly small class of infrastructure owners wields power comparable to pre-Enlightenment monarchs while the vast majority loses labor value and political leverage.
Theoretical/modeling exercise and historical analogy presented in the paper; argumentative prediction rather than reported empirical measurement (no sample size or quantified projection in the abstract).
high negative The Great Compression: Geopolitical Fragmentation, AI, and t... emergence of neo-feudal class structure; decline in labor value and political le...
Advances in artificial intelligence are producing an accelerating concentration of economic power.
Paper asserts causal link based on theoretical argument and economic/political analysis of AI-driven accumulation; no quantitative sample size or empirical estimate reported in the abstract.
high negative The Great Compression: Geopolitical Fragmentation, AI, and t... concentration of economic power
The post-World War II international order is undergoing geopolitical fragmentation driven by twenty consecutive years of democratic decline.
Statement in paper referencing long-term democratic trend data (20-year decline) and historical/political analysis; no specific sample size or statistical details provided in the abstract.
high negative The Great Compression: Geopolitical Fragmentation, AI, and t... geopolitical fragmentation / democratic decline
Many agents hover around the break-even point despite similar semantic matching scores.
Observed empirical pattern reported in benchmark results: agents with similar semantic matching scores nevertheless show different financial outcomes (many near break-even).
high negative Market-Bench: Benchmarking Large Language Models on Economic... profitability relative to semantic matching score
AI-assisted evaluation reduces variance in research quality.
SEM and regression analyses on OECD panel data report a decrease in variance of research quality measures associated with higher AIRC.
high negative AI-Augmented Peer Review and Scientific Productivity: A Cros... variance in research quality
We identify a temporal constraint: the window during which semiconductor manufacturing concentration makes hardware-level governance implementable is narrowing, while R&D timelines for critical mechanisms span years.
Authors' temporal analysis combining industry structure observations (semiconductor manufacturing concentration) with estimated R&D timelines for mechanisms (qualitative/engineering timeline estimates). No empirical time-series sample size provided.
high negative Hardware-Level Governance of AI Compute: A Feasibility Taxon... temporal feasibility window for hardware-level governance
We assess principal threats to compute-based governance, including algorithmic efficiency gains, distributed training methods, and sovereignty concerns.
Authors' threat analysis (qualitative assessment of technical and geopolitical threat vectors). No quantitative sample size; based on literature and engineering reasoning.
high negative Hardware-Level Governance of AI Compute: A Feasibility Taxon... threats to feasibility and effectiveness of compute-based governance
Our analysis reveals a structural mismatch: the mechanisms most needed for treaty verification, including on-chip compute metering, cryptographic proof-of-training, and hardware-embedded enforcement, are also the least mature.
Authors' feasibility assessments of mechanisms (qualitative/engineering evaluation across the taxonomy); identification of critical mechanisms for treaty verification and corresponding feasibility ratings. No empirical trial or sample size reported.
high negative Hardware-Level Governance of AI Compute: A Feasibility Taxon... maturity/feasibility of treaty-relevant hardware mechanisms
The governance of frontier AI increasingly relies on controlling access to computational resources, yet the hardware-level mechanisms invoked by policy proposals remain largely unexamined from an engineering perspective.
Authors' framing and literature review presented in the paper (conceptual/qualitative argument; no empirical sample size reported).
high negative Hardware-Level Governance of AI Compute: A Feasibility Taxon... hardware-level governance examination / policy-technical gap
The review identifies persistent gaps in population coverage, multimodal integration, equity optimization, explainability, validation, and governance that constrain inclusiveness and robustness of GeoAI applications in urban mobility research.
Authors' gap analysis based on the contents and limitations of the 18 included studies.
high negative GeoAI and Multimodal Geospatial Data Fusion for Inclusive Ur... coverage and robustness limitations in multimodal GeoAI research (population cov...
Urban mobility is a central challenge for sustainable and inclusive cities, as climate change, congestion, and spatial inequality increasingly reveal mobility patterns as expressions of deeper social and spatial structures.
Introductory framing statement in the paper; general literature/contextual claim (no original empirical test reported in this paper).
high negative GeoAI and Multimodal Geospatial Data Fusion for Inclusive Ur... centrality of urban mobility as a challenge for sustainability and inclusivity
In an additive model where human utility and fitness differ, if deception increases fitness beyond genuine utility then evolution will select for deception.
Mathematical analysis of an additive model in the paper showing selection pressure favors traits (deception) that increase the fitness function even when they reduce true human utility (theoretical derivation).
high negative A mathematical theory of evolution for self-designing AIs selection for deception trait versus genuine utility alignment
Within robotics subsectors, system integration delivers earlier and stronger carbon-reduction effects than ontology manufacturing.
Subsector analysis in the panel data (277 prefecture-level cities, 2008–2019) comparing effects of system integration versus ontology manufacturing on urban carbon emissions.
high negative Exploring the nonlinear relationship between robotics manufa... urban carbon emissions (subsector-differentiated effects)
The carbon-mitigation effects of robotics manufacturing are more pronounced in the central region of China than in the eastern region, indicating a latecomer advantage in green industrialization.
Heterogeneity analysis across geographic regions (central vs eastern regions) using the same panel of 277 prefecture-level cities (2008–2019).
high negative Exploring the nonlinear relationship between robotics manufa... urban carbon emissions (heterogeneous effect by region)
A stage-dependent sequential mechanism operates: mature robotics manufacturing promotes robot adoption, which improves urban energy efficiency, and ultimately reduces carbon emissions; this channel is inactive at early stages of industry development.
Mechanism/mediation analysis using the panel data of 277 prefecture-level cities (2008–2019), presented as sequential pathway evidence in the paper.
high negative Exploring the nonlinear relationship between robotics manufa... robot adoption; urban energy efficiency; urban carbon emissions
Once robotics manufacturing reaches a moderate scale, further expansion leads to declines in urban carbon emissions.
Same panel dataset (277 prefecture-level cities, 2008–2019); econometric identification of the right-hand (declining) portion of the inverted U-shaped curve.
Acemoglu and Restrepo (2022) attribute 50–70% of the increase in US wage inequality between 1980 and 2016 to displacement of workers from tasks by automation.
Citation to Acemoglu and Restrepo (2022) empirical decomposition reported in the paper.
high negative Steering Technological Progress contribution of automation-driven displacement to wage inequality growth
Dechezleprêtre et al. (2025), exploiting Germany's Hartz reforms, estimate an elasticity of automation innovation to low-skill wages of 2–5 at the firm level.
Citation to Dechezleprêtre et al. (2025) empirical estimate reported in the literature review.
high negative Steering Technological Progress elasticity of automation innovation with respect to low-skill wages
When employers have monopsony power, they choose technologies that expand this power beyond what a social planner would consider optimal.
Model results and discussion in Section 7 on interaction of technological choices and monopsony power.
high negative Steering Technological Progress extent of monopsony-enhancing technology adoption
Profit-maximizing firms pursue innovations that erode workers' market power (make them more replaceable), even at the expense of production efficiency; a social planner would instead prefer technologies that preserve workers' market power.
Theoretical analysis in the paper of firms' profit-maximizing technology choices under market power considerations, plus comparative planner outcome.
high negative Steering Technological Progress technology choice with respect to workers' replaceability
A welfare-maximizing planner chooses to automate fewer tasks than a production-efficiency benchmark would dictate when workers' welfare is heavily weighted.
Model analysis of optimal task automation vs. production efficiency under different welfare weights on workers.
high negative Steering Technological Progress level of task automation
For the private business sector, if the set of automated tasks were frozen in 1950, 87% of TFP growth between 1950 and 2023 would have been eliminated.
Counterfactual growth-accounting exercise that freezes the set of automated tasks at 1950 while allowing capital, labor, and other productivity growth to follow historical rates (simulation based on calibrated accounting).
high negative Past Automation and Future A.I.: How Weak Links Tame the Gro... fraction of historical TFP growth eliminated by freezing automation
The sum of "other" TFP growth and average labor productivity growth (ˆZt + ˆψℓt) is small — for example equal to -0.1% per year for the private business sector since 1950.
Growth-accounting decomposition for the private business sector since 1950 using BEA/BLS data in the task-based framework.
high negative Past Automation and Future A.I.: How Weak Links Tame the Gro... combined growth rate of other TFP and average labor productivity (ˆZt + ˆψℓt)
In the limiting case of full automation, the model predicts that optimal recombination distance collapses to zero, suggesting that fully AI-driven research would undermine the very knowledge creation that it seeks to accelerate.
Limiting-case analytical result of the model: as the share of AI-automated tasks approaches 1 (full automation), the derived optimal recombination distance converges to zero.
high negative Bridging Distant Ideas: the Impact of AI on R&D and Recombin... optimal recombination distance (approaches zero under full automation)
Excessive reliance on AI may reduce the originality of research and lead to duplication of research efforts.
Model implication: as the share of tasks automated by AI increases, the paper shows analytically that originality can decline and firms may duplicate research efforts (due to homogenization of methods or search), reducing novel knowledge creation.
high negative Bridging Distant Ideas: the Impact of AI on R&D and Recombin... originality of research; duplication of research efforts
AI increases the aggregate rate of creative destruction, shortening the monopoly duration that rewards radical innovations.
Analytical result from the model: introducing AI raises the aggregate creative-destruction rate in the Schumpeterian framework, which reduces the expected monopoly duration and thus the rents that sustain radical innovation.
high negative Bridging Distant Ideas: the Impact of AI on R&D and Recombin... aggregate rate of creative destruction and monopoly duration (rents for radical ...
Sustaining such cooperative informational systems has historically proven difficult due to structural incentives that gradually erode transparency and trust.
Historical/analytical assertion in the paper; presented as a high-level observation (no dataset or empirical historical analysis provided in the excerpt).
high negative A Case for Coevolution persistence/stability of cooperative informational systems (affected by incentiv...
Policy enforcement reduces total spending by 27.3%.
Quantitative result reported from the paper's experiments across baselines and scenarios (paper reports a 27.3% reduction attributed to policy enforcement).
In many deployment contexts, especially countries with strong real-time fiat systems like UPI, relying on crypto rails is misaligned with regulatory and infrastructure realities.
Contextual/argumentative claim in the paper contrasting crypto reliance with fiat systems such as UPI (no empirical country-level sample reported).
high negative APEX: Agent Payment Execution with Policy for Autonomous Age... alignment between payment-rail assumptions and regulatory/infrastructure realiti...
The way we're thinking about generative AI right now is fundamentally individual (this appears in how users interact with models, how models are built, how they're benchmarked, and how commercial and research strategies using AI are defined).
Author's observational/descriptive claim supported by argumentative examples (mentions user interaction patterns, model design and benchmarking practices, and commercial/research strategies); no empirical sample or quantitative analysis reported in the excerpt.
high negative The Future of AI is Many, Not One conceptual framing and practices around generative AI (individual-focused design...
The emission-reduction effect of AI innovation is more significant for firms located in regions with underdeveloped factor markets.
Heterogeneity (regional subsample/interaction) analysis reported in the paper on the 21,428 firm-year sample, indicating larger AI-related emission reductions in regions with less developed factor markets.
high negative Artificial Intelligence Innovation, Internal Structure Optim... corporate carbon emission intensity (differential effect by regional factor mark...
The emission-reduction effect of AI innovation is more significant for firms in high-environmental-sensitivity industries.
Heterogeneity (subsample/interaction) analysis in the paper using the 21,428 firm-year observations, showing stronger AI-related emission reductions in industries characterized as high environmental sensitivity.
high negative Artificial Intelligence Innovation, Internal Structure Optim... corporate carbon emission intensity (differential effect by industry environment...
The emission-reduction effect of AI innovation is more significant for enterprises with a low supply chain concentration.
Heterogeneity (subsample) analysis reported in the paper using the 21,428 firm-year dataset, comparing effects across firms with different supply chain concentration levels.
high negative Artificial Intelligence Innovation, Internal Structure Optim... corporate carbon emission intensity (differential effect by supply chain concent...
Executives’ green cognition and government environmental attention together constitute dual internal and external driving forces for corporate carbon emission reduction.
Further analysis reported in the paper (moderation/interaction analysis or additional regressions) on the same 21,428 firm-year sample showing these factors strengthen carbon reduction associated with AI innovation.
high negative Artificial Intelligence Innovation, Internal Structure Optim... corporate carbon emission intensity / carbon emission reduction
AI innovation can significantly reduce corporate carbon emission intensity.
Empirical analysis using panel data of 21,428 firm-year observations from Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies over 2010–2022; result reported in the paper's main regressions (method described as micro-level empirical analysis).
high negative Artificial Intelligence Innovation, Internal Structure Optim... corporate carbon emission intensity
AI's disproportionate benefits for lagging regions help narrow interprovincial emission gaps.
Heterogeneity analysis reported in the provincial panel (2003–2021) showing stronger AI-related reductions in emissions inequality for lagging regions compared to advanced regions.
high negative Artificial intelligence, green innovation, and regional carb... interprovincial emission gaps (carbon inequality)
Green innovation is concentrated in coastal provinces and has not effectively diffused to inland areas, limiting its ability to reduce regional carbon inequality.
Spatial distribution analysis within the provincial panel showing geographic concentration of green innovation activity in coastal provinces and limited diffusion inland.
high negative Artificial intelligence, green innovation, and regional carb... geographic concentration of green innovation (diffusion to inland areas)
AI reduces carbon inequality primarily through improved energy efficiency, enhanced environmental monitoring, and more efficient resource allocation, disproportionately benefiting lagging regions and narrowing interprovincial emission gaps.
Mechanism analysis reported in the paper based on the provincial panel (2003–2021) linking AI development to proximate channels (energy efficiency, monitoring, resource allocation) and heterogeneous impacts across regions.
high negative Artificial intelligence, green innovation, and regional carb... carbon inequality (interprovincial emission gaps)
AI development significantly reduces carbon inequality, particularly when measured by the Gini index.
Empirical analysis using a provincial panel dataset covering 2003–2021; carbon inequality measured with the Gini index; reported statistically significant negative association between AI development and Gini-measured carbon inequality.
high negative Artificial intelligence, green innovation, and regional carb... carbon inequality (Gini index)
Improvements in operational resilience (OR) effectively reduce corporate operational risk.
Further analysis reported in the paper linking higher OR to lower operational risk measures for firms in the sample.
high negative Does Artificial Intelligence Improve the Operational Resilie... corporate operational risk (reduction)
AI promotes operational resilience by reducing management agency conflicts.
Mechanism (mediation) tests reported in the paper showing AI associated with reductions in measures of agency/management conflict, which in turn relate to OR improvements.
high negative Does Artificial Intelligence Improve the Operational Resilie... management agency conflicts (reduction)
Mandatory release delays can paradoxically reduce deployed model quality by shifting preemption to the announcement stage, where quality locks in before the mandated waiting period.
Model extension analyzing mandatory waiting periods: equilibrium strategic behavior shifts to earlier announcements and quality commitment, yielding lower quality at deployment than without the delay.
high negative Optimal Release Timing of AI Systems: A Strategic Analysis w... deployed model quality under mandatory release delays
Premature release imposes safety externalities on society that firms do not fully internalize.
Model assumption and subsequent analysis: the paper models a socially harmful safety externality from early deployment that firms ignore (or undervalue) in their private payoff calculations.
high negative Optimal Release Timing of AI Systems: A Strategic Analysis w... magnitude of uninternalized safety externality / societal harm from premature re...
Equilibrium release occurs strictly before the social optimum.
Analytic characterization of the symmetric Nash equilibrium in a theoretical preemption game where firms trade off development time (quality) against first-mover advantages; comparative statics show equilibrium release time < socially optimal release time.
high negative Optimal Release Timing of AI Systems: A Strategic Analysis w... timing of model release relative to the social optimum
Unbalanced or poorly governed adoption of Big Data and AI contributes to increased systemic risk, cybersecurity vulnerability, regulatory fragmentation and third-party dependence on BigTech platforms.
Argument based on qualitative literature review and synthesis of international empirical studies and comparative sector analysis; no single-sample empirical study in this paper.
high negative Implications of Big Data Technologies for the Resilience of ... systemic risk; cybersecurity vulnerability; regulatory fragmentation; third-part...
Task complexity shapes substitution: low-complexity tasks see high substitution, while high-complexity tasks favor limited partial automation.
Calibration of the model to O*NET tasks + expert survey + GPT-4o decompositions; implementation results reported for computer vision showing substitution varies with task complexity.
high negative Economics of Human and AI Collaboration: When is Partial Aut... degree of labor substitution as a function of task complexity
AI systems exhibit predictable but diminishing returns to data, compute, and model size (scaling-law experiments), implying the cost of higher accuracy is convex: good performance may be inexpensive, but near-perfect accuracy is disproportionately costly.
Scaling-law experiments estimating performance as a function of data, compute, and model size; described experimental estimation of production function.
high negative Economics of Human and AI Collaboration: When is Partial Aut... marginal returns to inputs (data, compute, model size) and marginal cost of accu...
When externalities are weak or the goods are close substitutes, the business-stealing effect produces a race to the bottom that dissipates more surplus than the industrial policy creates.
Comparative-static equilibrium results from the two-country strategic trade/R&D model showing welfare losses under weak externalities or high product substitutability (theoretical derivation; no empirical sample).
high negative Industrial Policy with Network Externalities: Race to the Bo... aggregate welfare (net surplus created/dissipated by policy)