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Home Papers Evidence Explore Trends Syntheses Digests About 🎲 Workforce Futures
Direction, evidence grade, and study type are AI-generated labels (gpt-5-mini), not human-verified. Syntheses are LLM-written. "Tensions" are machine-detected candidates, not confirmed contradictions. A research-acceleration tool, not peer review. How this is built →

Evidence (740 claims)

Search and filter individual claims pulled from the papers. Looking for a specific finding ("what's the effect on wages?"), you're in the right place. Want to compare whole outcome categories against each other instead? Use the Evidence Explorer.

The board below groups claims two ways: by broad theme (nine paper-level topics) and by outcome category (the 34 claim-level outcomes that the Explorer and Syntheses also use).

Browse by theme

Nine broad, paper-level topics. Click one to filter the claims below.

Adoption
9875 claims
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Productivity
8807 claims
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Governance
7870 claims
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Human-AI Collaboration
7560 claims
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Org Design
4892 claims
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Innovation
4781 claims
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Labor Markets
4004 claims
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Skills & Training
3308 claims
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Inequality
2332 claims
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Claims by outcome category

Counts by direction of finding. These are the same 34 outcome categories the Explorer compares and the Syntheses are written for. A linked row has a published synthesis.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 870 233 116 1066 2363
Governance & Regulation 976 451 218 133 1809
Organizational Efficiency 949 224 144 88 1416
Technology Adoption Rate 764 287 141 122 1325
Research Productivity 501 152 74 362 1101
Output Quality 542 216 69 69 896
Decision Quality 387 198 94 54 740
Firm Productivity 513 67 101 27 714
AI Safety & Ethics 249 303 73 36 667
Market Structure 190 192 134 27 548
Task Allocation 243 77 91 36 452
Innovation Output 291 33 55 20 401
Skill Acquisition 206 72 65 21 364
Employment Level 133 63 115 22 335
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 153 79 52 32 323
Task Completion Time 206 37 12 15 272
Firm Revenue 179 52 29 5 266
Consumer Welfare 130 76 47 13 266
Inequality Measures 48 137 51 6 242
Worker Satisfaction 101 81 25 13 220
Error Rate 84 110 11 5 210
Wages & Compensation 98 47 30 10 185
Regulatory Compliance 88 73 17 7 185
Automation Exposure 66 64 33 16 182
Team Performance 105 29 30 11 176
Training Effectiveness 109 22 14 21 168
Developer Productivity 114 21 14 8 158
Job Displacement 12 90 24 1 127
Hiring & Recruitment 57 9 9 5 80
Skill Obsolescence 6 56 9 1 72
Social Protection 43 17 8 2 70
Creative Output 35 21 9 4 70
Labor Share of Income 18 21 17 1 57
Worker Turnover 15 16 4 35
Industry 1 1
A distinctive feature of the taxonomy is a dedicated category for self-evaluation: every improvement loop is a claim that some signal can substitute for human judgment.
Authors' taxonomy and conceptual argument emphasizing self-evaluation as a separate category across surveyed works.
high mixed Recursive Self-Improvement in AI: From Bounded Self-Refineme... role of automated evaluators substituting for human judgment
The study investigates both perceived and enacted managerial agency.
Stated measurement targets in the abstract (descriptive of dependent variables). No measurement instruments or sample reported in the provided text.
high mixed Strategic Adoption of AI-Enabled Decision-Making Systems: De... perceived managerial agency; enacted managerial agency
The study focuses on how technological design features, including transparency and override flexibility, interact with governance structures such as accountability and incentive systems.
Stated focus of the study in the abstract (descriptive of independent variables and governance moderators). No empirical details or sample reported in the provided text.
high mixed Strategic Adoption of AI-Enabled Decision-Making Systems: De... interaction effects of design features and governance on managerial agency
This doctoral research examines how AI-enabled decision systems affect human agency in data-driven organizations.
Stated research scope and aim in the paper (descriptive claim about the study's focus). No sample or results provided in the abstract.
high mixed Strategic Adoption of AI-Enabled Decision-Making Systems: De... human (managerial) agency — perceived and enacted
Artificial intelligence is increasingly embedded in organizational decision-making, reshaping how managers exercise discretion and responsibility.
Stated as a background/motivation statement in the paper (literature-driven claim in the abstract). No empirical evidence or sample reported in the provided text.
high mixed Strategic Adoption of AI-Enabled Decision-Making Systems: De... managerial discretion and responsibility (human agency)
There exists a six-bit prior for which R_max(μ)/R_0(μ) = 39/31 > 5/4, so no universal 5/4 bound holds.
Constructive counterexample provided in the paper: an explicit six-bit prior is presented and analyzed to compute the ratio. This is a theoretical construction, not empirical data.
high mixed Quantifying Theoretical AI Alignment Guarantees: Receiver-Ut... receiver's expected number of correctly guessed bits (receiver utility)
If the prior μ is close to the independent product prior with the same marginals in the sense that μ(x) ≥ (1−η) π_μ(x) for every state x, then R_max(μ) ≤ R_0(μ) + η n.
Mathematical derivation/proof in the paper under the stated closeness assumption (formal theorem conditional on parameter η and number of bits n). No empirical/sample data.
high mixed Quantifying Theoretical AI Alignment Guarantees: Receiver-Ut... receiver's expected number of correctly guessed bits (receiver utility)
For any prior μ, R_max(μ)/R_0(μ) ≤ 3/2.
Mathematical proof (theorem) within the paper's Bayesian persuasion model where the sender is strategic and the receiver guesses bits. The result is presented as a proven upper bound under the model's assumptions (no empirical/sample data).
high mixed Quantifying Theoretical AI Alignment Guarantees: Receiver-Ut... receiver's expected number of correctly guessed bits (receiver utility)
LLM guidance was associated with increased pupil size variability.
Physiological eye-tracking measure (pupil size variability) reported and compared across conditions in the simulated SAR experiment.
The effectiveness of AI in strategic core functions is contingent upon the human–AI interface.
Stated as a conditional claim in the paper—AI effectiveness depends on the quality of the human–AI interface; no empirical quantification provided in the summary.
high mixed GenAI Agency: Mediating Skill Development and Algorithmic Tr... effectiveness of AI in strategic functions
GenAI should be understood as more than an educational technology: it affects the development of managerial decision-making, business ethics, and workforce readiness for future managers, entrepreneurs, administrators, policymakers, and business professionals.
Conceptual argument and literature synthesis presented in the review article (no primary empirical sample).
high mixed Instructing Higher Education in the Era of Generative AI: Im... managerial decision-making capabilities and ethical judgment
The effect of embeddedness (GenAI being integrated into internal software environments) on employees depends on the presence of organizational authorization.
Reported empirical result from the vignette experiment indicating an interaction effect between embeddedness and organizational authorization (text states 'the effect of embeddedness depends on the presence of organizational authorization').
high mixed The Role Of Embeddedness In Generative Ai Adoption: A Perspe... occurrence of guilt and risk perception (interaction effect)
The research contrasts tool-shaping (AI behavior/prototype) and mind-shaping (user strategy training) pathways and reports differing effects between them.
Paper presents both a tool-shaping experiment (Study 1) and a mind-shaping experiment (Study 2) and discusses comparative findings across these pathways.
high mixed Shaping The Tool Or Shaping The Mind: An Investigation Of Du... differences in outcomes (information elaboration and cognitive load) between too...
Cognitive flexibility is examined as a moderator (boundary condition) of the interventions' effects.
Paper reports including cognitive flexibility as an individual-differences moderator in analyses across the two studies (moderation analysis planned/reported).
high mixed Shaping The Tool Or Shaping The Mind: An Investigation Of Du... moderation of intervention effects by cognitive flexibility (on information elab...
Reasoning scaffolds (public tools, playbook, verifier, objectivity policy, red-team) improve calibration and audit discipline, but proprietary evidence sets the upper bound of what the AI Scientist can know and therefore decide.
Synthesis of experimental results showing B improved calibration/audit metrics while C (with proprietary data) markedly increased coverage and informed decision-quality.
high mixed AI Scientists Are Only as Good as Their Evidence: A Stratifi... calibration/audit discipline improvements vs. upper bound of knowledge/decision ...
Under capability-superset accounting on the curated gold competitive record, agent A recovers only 0.25, agent B recovers 0.38, while agent C recovers 0.96 (overall).
Capability-superset accounting comparison of fraction of a curated gold competitive record recovered by each agent on the benchmark.
high mixed AI Scientists Are Only as Good as Their Evidence: A Stratifi... fraction of curated gold competitive record recovered (gold-coverage)
AI reconfigures UET through evaluation reconfiguration: AI partially substitutes human judgment with algorithmic decision logic and thereby shapes how alternatives are evaluated.
Conceptual synthesis from the literature review integrating findings from management and IS studies on algorithmic decision logic and judgment substitution (no primary empirical sample reported).
high mixed Hybrid Upper Echelons: A Theorizing Review On Ai In Executiv... degree to which algorithmic logic substitutes human judgment and alters evaluati...
AI reconfigures upper echelons theory (UET) through cognition reconfiguration: AI mediates information and attention, expanding analytical capacity while introducing new constraints on executive cognition.
Synthesis of management and IS research in a concept-centric literature review; conceptual argument drawing on prior studies about information mediation and attention (no primary empirical sample reported).
high mixed Hybrid Upper Echelons: A Theorizing Review On Ai In Executiv... executive cognitive processes (information and attention mediation; analytical c...
Emotion is a strategic action channel rather than a surface style.
Interpretation based on experimental results (GoEmotions prompting and subsequent analyses) demonstrating that adding emotional framing changes negotiation outcomes in systematic ways.
high mixed EmoDistill: Offline Emotion Skill Distillation for Language ... role of emotion in strategy (impact on negotiation outcomes)
Exploits and proofs of concept remain important, but in defender workflows they primarily prove impact, guide prioritization, and justify remediation rather than serving the same role they did in high-end offensive workflows.
Conceptual argument grounded in collaboration data and public examples (Anthropic Mythos Preview and Mozilla Firefox collaborations cited); no numerical sample size provided in the abstract.
high mixed Demystifying the Mythos or Disrupting Bugonomics? From Zero-... role of exploits/PoCs in remediation/prioritization decisions
Including narrative explanations with AI predictions may involve tradeoffs for decision-making performance.
Synthesis and conclusion based on the experiment's findings (null effect on accuracy, increased reliance, and exploratory detrimental effects on response time and discrimination).
high mixed Human Decision-Making with Persuasive and Narrative LLM Expl... overall decision-making performance (tradeoffs across accuracy, reliance, respon...
Consumer decision-making is shifting from linear to nonlinear patterns under intelligent technologies.
Synthesis from the paper's systematic review and content analysis of literature (2010–2025); no sample size or primary empirical study reported in the summary.
high mixed Research on International Marketing in the Context of Intell... consumer decision-making pattern (linear vs nonlinear)
Scaling helps but does not solve the accumulated-message effect (Anthropic models: Haiku -0.22 to Opus -0.17; OpenAI models: Nano -0.34 to GPT-5.2 -0.17).
Comparison of effect magnitudes (Cohen's d values) across model families and sizes reported in the experiments.
high mixed AMEL: Accumulated Message Effects on LLM Judgments AMEL magnitude as a function of model scale/variant
The accumulated-message effect concentrates on items where the model is genuinely uncertain at baseline (d = -0.34 for high-entropy items, vs d = -0.15 when the baseline is deterministic).
Subset analysis partitioning items by baseline model entropy/uncertainty; reported Cohen's d for high-entropy vs deterministic-baseline items (no separate sample counts reported in the abstract).
high mixed AMEL: Accumulated Message Effects on LLM Judgments magnitude of AMEL as a function of item baseline uncertainty (entropy)
Models shift toward the conversation's prevailing polarity (accumulated message effect on LLM judgments, AMEL).
Experimental comparison where identical test items were presented either in isolation or following histories saturated with predominantly positive or negative evaluations, across the full dataset (75,898 API calls to 11 models). Reported effect: d = -0.17, p < 10^-46.
high mixed AMEL: Accumulated Message Effects on LLM Judgments directional bias in LLM judgments toward preceding conversation polarity
Interpretability, trust calibration, and interface design matter, but they cover only part of what determines whether human-AI combination works.
Authors' argumentative claim based on their analysis and mapping of broader factors; presented as an evaluative conclusion rather than an empirical estimate.
high mixed Addressing the Synergy Gap: The Six Elements of the Design S... completeness of current design foci relative to factors determining effective co...
AI creates hybrid cognitive architectures by integrating algorithmic cognition with human cognition, thereby changing how strategic decisions are made.
Theoretical argument drawing on literature in Behavioral Strategy and cognitive theory; conceptual synthesis without reported empirical tests or sample.
high mixed Infusing Artificial Intelligence into Strategy Theory: Synth... architecture of decision-making/cognition in strategic contexts
Outcome-only evaluation can certify economically unsafe agents: a policy can hit a business KPI while violating deployable behavioral discipline.
Illustrated by a hotel-pricing experiment (hidden competitor state) in which a learner achieves plausible revenue per available room while failing to preserve the rate discipline of a rule-based revenue-management competitor; based on experimental results in the paper's two-hotel benchmark.
high mixed When Outcome Looks Right But Discipline Fails: Trace-Based E... revenue per available room and preservation of rate discipline (behavioral disci...
AI enhances forecasting accuracy only when integrated within institutional decision cycles.
Empirical finding from comparative analysis combining Flexibility Index (including AI integration) with measures of institutional decision cycles; conditional effect reported in results.
high mixed Budgeting for Agility: A Cross-Sectoral Analysis of Fiscal F... forecasting accuracy / predictive alignment
There is a fundamental reward-coverage tradeoff: concentrating probability mass on high-reward actions reduces variance but risks missing signal on actions the target policy may take.
Explicit characterization in abstract; claimed theoretical analysis/derivation of the tradeoff between variance reduction and coverage when designing logging policies.
high mixed Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation variance of OPE estimators and coverage of actions relevant to the target policy
Facilitators shifted select charity-level allocations by up to 5.5 percentage points, directly affecting the final charitable payout.
Analysis of final group allocation outcomes across experimental conditions showing shifts in allocation to specific charities; reported maximum observed shift of 5.5 percentage points attributable to facilitator condition(s). (Study-level sample covering the two experiments; participants organized in groups of three.)
high mixed Real-Time Group Dynamics with LLM Facilitation: Evidence fro... charity-level allocation percentages (final payout shares)
Under open-ended prompts, trust drops to 3-55%, confirming prompt framing as a confound; we report both conditions.
Experimental comparison reported by authors between directed queries and open-ended prompts; observed trust rates under open-ended prompts ranged from 3% to 55% (no explicit per-model sample sizes reported in the summary).
high mixed Oracle Poisoning: Corrupting Knowledge Graphs to Weaponise A... model trust rate in accepting poisoned data under open-ended prompts
Depending on the used fairness metric, the Pareto frontier may include upper-bound threshold rules, thus preferring individuals with lower success probabilities.
Analytical derivations showing that for certain fairness metrics the set of Pareto-optimal rules includes rules that impose upper-bound thresholds; theoretical examples and arguments in the paper.
high mixed Fairness vs Performance: Characterizing the Pareto Frontier ... presence of upper-bound threshold rules on Pareto frontier (preference toward lo...
Message for AI alignment: smooth scoring-based oversight cannot elicit truthful reports from a strategic agent; sharp thresholds (step functions) are the calibration-preserving design.
Synthesis of the paper's theoretical impossibility and constructive results applied to AI oversight setting (argument plus the step-function constructive escape).
high mixed The Endogeneity of Miscalibration: Impossibility and Escape ... ability of oversight designs (smooth scoring vs. sharp thresholds) to preserve c...
We empirically validate these theoretical observations using both synthetic and real datasets.
Experimental evaluation reported in the paper applying proposed policies and measures to synthetic data and at least one real dataset (details not given in abstract).
high mixed Price of Fairness in Short-Term and Long-Term Algorithmic Se... empirical consistency of theoretical findings (PoF behavior and long-term dispar...
These patterns suggest that AI adoption is associated with expected efficiency gains that shape both firms' pricing behaviour and their macroeconomic expectations.
Interpretation based on observed increases in productivity/profitability and different pricing/inflation expectations among adopters vs non-adopters in survey and DID analyses.
high mixed The economic impact of artificial intelligence: evidence fro... interpretive link between productivity/profitability gains and firms' pricing an...
Statistical tests confirmed significant performance differences (p ≤ 0.01).
Reported inferential statistics in results: statistical tests comparing strategy performances produced p-values at or below 0.01.
high mixed Few-Shot Portfolio Optimization: Can Large Language Models O... statistical significance of performance differences between strategies
Color-coded reward matrices alter VLM decision patterns.
Experimental condition varying the visual presentation of the IPD payoff matrix (color-coding of rewards) and measuring resulting decision patterns of multiple VLMs in IPD trials. (Reported as part of the experimental setup across models; exact counts not provided in abstract.)
high mixed The Effects of Visual Priming on Cooperative Behavior in Vis... changes in cooperation/defection choices in IPD when reward matrices are color-c...
VLM behavior can be influenced by image content depicting behavioral concepts (kindness/helpfulness vs. aggressiveness/selfishness).
Experimental manipulation in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma (IPD): VLMs were exposed to images labeled/connoting 'kindness/helpfulness' versus 'aggressiveness/selfishness' and subsequent choices in IPD rounds were recorded across multiple state-of-the-art VLMs. (Paper reports experiments across multiple VLMs; exact sample sizes per model/condition not stated in the abstract.)
high mixed The Effects of Visual Priming on Cooperative Behavior in Vis... cooperation rate (choice to cooperate vs. defect) in Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma...
The experimental findings are consistent with the paper's theoretical predictions.
Comparison reported in the paper between theoretical model predictions and observed outcomes from the controlled AI-agent trading experiments.
high mixed Information Aggregation with AI Agents consistency between theoretical predictions and experimental measures (e.g., agg...
Advanced prompting methods improve accuracy on inconclusive cases but over-correct, withholding decisions even on clear cases.
Empirical comparison of prompting methods reported in paper: advanced prompts increased accuracy on inconclusive (insufficient-information) cases but led to excessive deferral/withholding on clear cases.
high mixed Learning When Not to Decide: A Framework for Overcoming Fact... accuracy on inconclusive cases and rate of withholding/deferral on clear cases
AI is increasingly being integrated into both existing and newly emerging digital infrastructures, altering their architecture, functional role, and strategic significance as these systems begin to operate as embedded cognitive infrastructures shaping knowledge production, decision-making, and institutional processes.
Conceptual and descriptive claim presented by the paper (theoretical analysis/literature-informed observation). No empirical sample size or quantitative methods reported in the provided text.
high mixed Digital Sovereignty in the Global Cognitive-Informational Or... change in the architecture/role of digital infrastructures and their effect on k...
Results reveal divergences between purely simulated and human study datasets.
Abstract reports that findings diverge between simulation experiments and the human-subjects dataset; comparisons drawn across the two datasets (simulation N=2000, human N=290).
high mixed Imperfectly Cooperative Human-AI Interactions: Comparing the... comparative_outcomes_between_datasets
Cybersecurity has a moderating effect on audit data analytics.
Synthesis statement in the review summarizing included studies that report cybersecurity influences the effectiveness/usability of audit data analytics.
high mixed The Use of Technology and Data Analytics in Modern Auditing:... effectiveness of audit data analytics
A within-subject human study with 20 players and 600 games shows that our interventions significantly improve performance for low- and mid-skill players while matching expert-engine interventions for high-skill players.
Within-subject human experiment reported in the paper: N = 20 players, 600 games total; comparisons of performance under the proposed interventions versus expert-engine interventions.
high mixed Improving Human Performance with Value-Aware Interventions: ... human player performance in chess games (game outcomes / performance metrics) by...
Algorithmic credit scoring is accomplished through the ongoing work of alignment that stabilizes risk under conditions of persistent uncertainty, taking epistemic, modeling, and contextual forms.
The paper's theoretical argument grounded in nine-month ethnographic observations and analysis of how practitioners and institutions engage in alignment work across epistemic, modeling, and contextual dimensions.
high mixed Risk, Data, Alignment: Making Credit Scoring Work in Kenya alignment practices that stabilize risk amid uncertainty (epistemic, modeling, c...
Practitioners formulate risk through multiple interpretations.
Ethnographic evidence from interviews and observations indicating that risk is characterized differently across actors (technical, legal, business interpretations).
high mixed Risk, Data, Alignment: Making Credit Scoring Work in Kenya variation in definitions and framings of risk among practitioners
Subjectivity persisted in AI-powered recruitment decisions; human judgment remained an important factor.
Theme 2 (subjectivity in AI-powered recruitment) from interviews indicating retained human subjectivity and judgement in recruitment processes (n = 22).
high mixed The augmented recruiter: examining AI integration and decisi... degree_of_subjectivity_in_decision_making
Although the concurrent paradigm performs worse than the sequential paradigm in terms of immediate task performance, it is more effective in promoting users' emotional trust.
Comparison between concurrent and sequential AI-assisted decision-making paradigms in the RCT (N=120); authors report concurrent < sequential for immediate task performance, but concurrent > sequential for emotional trust.
high mixed How AI-Assisted Decision-Making Paradigms and Explainability... immediate task performance (negative) and emotional trust (positive)
Analysis uncovers dramatic asymmetries: inhibition 17.6% vs. preference 75.0%.
Paper reports specific aggregated percentages for two types of implicit effects (inhibition and preference) observed in their analysis; methodology context implies these are results from the benchmark evaluation (300 items / 17 models).
high mixed ImplicitMemBench: Measuring Unconscious Behavioral Adaptatio... rates of inhibition vs. preference effects (implicit memory outcomes)