The Commonplace
Home Dashboard Papers Evidence Syntheses Digests 🎲

Evidence (8066 claims)

Adoption
5586 claims
Productivity
4857 claims
Governance
4381 claims
Human-AI Collaboration
3417 claims
Labor Markets
2685 claims
Innovation
2581 claims
Org Design
2499 claims
Skills & Training
2031 claims
Inequality
1382 claims

Evidence Matrix

Claim counts by outcome category and direction of finding.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 417 113 67 480 1091
Governance & Regulation 419 202 124 64 823
Research Productivity 261 100 34 303 703
Organizational Efficiency 406 96 71 40 616
Technology Adoption Rate 323 128 74 38 568
Firm Productivity 307 38 70 12 432
Output Quality 260 71 27 29 387
AI Safety & Ethics 118 179 45 24 368
Market Structure 107 128 85 14 339
Decision Quality 177 75 37 19 312
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 89 58 33 22 209
Employment Level 74 34 78 9 197
Skill Acquisition 98 36 40 9 183
Innovation Output 121 12 24 13 171
Firm Revenue 98 35 24 157
Consumer Welfare 73 31 37 7 148
Task Allocation 87 16 34 7 144
Inequality Measures 25 76 32 5 138
Regulatory Compliance 54 61 13 3 131
Task Completion Time 89 7 4 3 103
Error Rate 44 51 6 101
Training Effectiveness 58 12 12 16 99
Worker Satisfaction 47 33 11 7 98
Wages & Compensation 54 15 20 5 94
Team Performance 47 12 15 7 82
Automation Exposure 27 26 10 6 72
Job Displacement 6 39 13 58
Hiring & Recruitment 40 4 6 3 53
Developer Productivity 34 4 3 1 42
Social Protection 22 11 6 2 41
Creative Output 16 7 5 1 29
Labor Share of Income 12 6 9 27
Skill Obsolescence 3 20 2 25
Worker Turnover 10 12 3 25
Conventional standardized, summative assessment is becoming increasingly misaligned with classroom reality because widespread student access to AI tools changes what, how, and where learning occurs.
Conceptual and policy analysis drawing on established assessment theory and literature on educational technology and AI; supported by comparative case studies of four countries using publicly available policy texts and secondary literature. No primary empirical/causal data or sample size reported.
medium negative The Future of Assessment: Rethinking Evaluation in an AI-Ass... alignment/validity of standardized summative assessments with classroom learning
Harms from manipulation, harassment, and de‑anonymizing biometric data create negative social externalities (mental health impacts, discrimination); without regulation, platforms may under‑invest in protective measures.
Synthesis of harms and economic externality reasoning from the reviewed studies; claim is theoretical and policy‑oriented rather than empirically quantified in the paper.
medium negative Securing Virtual Reality: Threat Models, Vulnerabilities, an... social harms and degree of private investment in protections absent regulation (...
Ongoing operational costs for safe multi‑user VR services (model updates, policy tuning, user support, human moderators) raise marginal costs relative to less‑protected services.
Qualitative cost components identified in the literature and by the authors; no empirical cost accounting or per‑unit estimates provided.
medium negative Securing Virtual Reality: Threat Models, Vulnerabilities, an... marginal operational costs of providing protected VR services (conceptual)
Implementing TVR‑Sec requires upfront investments in secure hardware, AI monitoring engines, and moderation infrastructure, increasing entry costs for new VR platforms and favoring incumbents or well‑capitalized entrants.
Authors' economic analysis based on component cost categories identified across the reviewed literature; no quantitative cost estimates provided.
medium negative Securing Virtual Reality: Threat Models, Vulnerabilities, an... effect on entry costs and market concentration (proposed effect, not empirically...
Unclear or overlapping rules can shift firm strategies toward risk-averse designs, limiting experimentation with novel AI features and product-market fit iterations.
Scenario analysis and qualitative reasoning about firm strategic responses to regulatory uncertainty; no firm-level behavioral data presented.
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... firm-level innovation activity and experimentation (e.g., product iterations, fe...
Higher compliance costs and enforcement uncertainty may favor large incumbents able to absorb costs, reducing entry by startups and lowering competitive pressure.
Qualitative assessment and comparative reasoning about firm size and cost absorption capacity; no quantitative market entry data included.
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... market entry rates; market concentration / competitive pressure
Regulatory ambiguity raises expected compliance risk and can depress private investment in AI capabilities deployed via platforms.
Scenario/impact reasoning based on economic theory of risk and investment; qualitative policy analysis without empirical investment measures.
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... private investment levels in platform-deployed AI capabilities
Divergent EU approaches influence global regulatory standards and could create cross-border frictions for multinational platforms.
Qualitative policy analysis and scenario reasoning on international spillovers; no empirical cross-border trade or compliance data provided.
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... cross-border regulatory friction and global regulatory convergence/divergence
Monitoring AI-specific harms (e.g., algorithmic amplification, recommendation systems) requires specialized capabilities that existing enforcement bodies may lack.
Governance and enforcement capability analysis; qualitative assessment of institutional capacity gaps.
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... enforcement effectiveness at detecting and addressing AI-specific harms
Ambiguity increases compliance costs for platforms and AI developers; smaller firms may be disproportionately affected, altering market structure.
Qualitative assessment and scenario impact reasoning (no empirical cost estimates provided).
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... compliance costs; market structure outcomes (e.g., firm survival, concentration)
Without explicit alignment mechanisms, gaps may persist (or new ones appear) between platform rules, sectoral AI requirements, and data governance regimes.
Comparative mapping of existing frameworks and scenario analysis highlighting alignment gaps; qualitative assessment.
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... presence of regulatory gaps between platform, sectoral AI, and data governance r...
Effective implementation will require clear division of responsibilities among EU bodies and national authorities; weak coordination risks inconsistent enforcement and regulatory arbitrage.
Governance analysis and qualitative assessment based on institutional structure of EU and member-state authorities; scenario reasoning (no primary quantitative data).
medium negative The Digital Omnibus and the Future of EU Regulation: Implica... consistency of enforcement / incidence of regulatory arbitrage
Weak or opaque civil–military interfaces can create hidden demand for capabilities, skew R&D incentives toward secrecy, and reduce competition and efficiency in civilian markets.
Secondary literature on civil–military relations combined with policy analysis; inferential rather than empirically verified within the study.
medium negative <b>Regulating AI in National Security: A Comparative S... R&D incentives (secrecy), market competition, and civilian market efficiency
Progressive use of export controls and differing normative stances on dual‑use technology can disrupt supply chains, affect comparative advantage, and increase costs for multinational suppliers and downstream users.
Analysis of export‑control policies across jurisdictions and theoretical implications discussed in the economics implications section (no quantitative supply‑chain measurement presented).
medium negative <b>Regulating AI in National Security: A Comparative S... supply chain stability, comparative advantage, and downstream costs
Pakistan’s weaker governance of military AI may lower immediate compliance burdens for firms but raise reputational and export risks.
Synthesis of Pakistan’s governance documents and civil–military literature, with inferential policy commentary on market and reputational consequences.
medium negative <b>Regulating AI in National Security: A Comparative S... compliance burden, reputational risk, and export risk for firms operating in Pak...
Divergent regulatory regimes increase compliance uncertainty for firms and may fragment markets for dual‑use and defence‑adjacent AI goods/services.
Policy commentary drawing on comparative regulatory findings; inference about market effects rather than empirical measurement.
medium negative <b>Regulating AI in National Security: A Comparative S... compliance uncertainty and market fragmentation for dual‑use/defence‑adjacent AI...
High frictions or opaque consent reduce data supply, raising costs of training models and potentially reducing market competition by advantaging incumbents with richer legacy data.
Economic reasoning and scenario analysis from the workshop; proposed as an implication rather than an empirically tested claim in the workshop summary.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... data supply, model training costs, market competition
Inadequate consent creates information asymmetries and negative externalities (privacy harms, loss of trust) that can distort demand for AI services.
Theoretical/economic argument presented in the workshop materials and position papers; not supported by a specific empirical study within the workshop summary.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... demand for AI services / trust / privacy harms
Dynamic behavior of models (continual learning, model updates) changes the meaning of past consent.
Conceptual argument discussed at the workshop and in position papers; no empirical longitudinal analysis presented within the workshop summary.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... stability of consent relevance over time
Decision delegation to AI agents and opaque personalization blur the scope of consent and control.
Theoretical and design-oriented synthesis from interdisciplinary workshop discussions and position papers; no empirical measurement reported.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... clarity/scope of consent and user control boundaries
Existing controls are not user-friendly or empowering.
Qualitative assessment produced during co-design and participatory prototyping at the workshop and position papers; no quantitative usability metrics presented in the summary.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... usability / empowerment of privacy controls
Privacy policies remain hard to understand; transparency alone doesn’t ensure protection.
Workshop synthesis and position papers citing longstanding observations in HCI and privacy research; the workshop did not report a new empirical study measuring comprehension.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... user comprehension of privacy policies / protection outcomes
Cookie banners and clickwrap routinely violate informed-consent principles.
Claim arises from workshop findings and referenced critiques in position papers and HCI/privacy literature discussed during the workshop; no new empirical counts or sample sizes reported in the workshop summary.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... adherence to informed-consent principles
Current privacy-consent mechanisms (cookie banners, dense policies, transparency-only approaches) fail to deliver meaningful user control.
Synthesis from the workshop participants and position papers; based on qualitative critique of existing mechanisms using the Futures Design Toolkit and participatory design discussions. No primary empirical sample or quantitative evaluation reported in the workshop summary.
medium negative Moving Beyond Clicks: Rethinking Consent and User Control in... meaningful user control (degree of user control over data use)
Students raised concerns about ChatGPT producing factual errors, the risk of overreliance that could reduce independent thinking, and functional constraints of free ChatGPT versions.
Qualitative analysis of open-ended student survey responses; concerns consistently reported across responses in the sample of 254 students.
medium negative Expanding the lens: multi-institutional evidence on student ... student-reported concerns and perceived risks
Biased or unrepresentative AI outputs produce negative externalities, including maladaptation and inefficient investments in vulnerable regions.
Conceptual analysis and illustrative cases linking misleading model outputs to maladaptive decisions; the paper notes risks rather than providing quantified incidence or cost estimates.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Incidence of maladaptation and associated economic inefficiencies attributable t...
Returns to scale in compute and data favor incumbents; without intervention this dynamic can entrench inequality in the global climate-information market.
Economic theory of returns to scale combined with observed compute concentration; no empirical elasticity or returns-to-scale estimates provided.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Degree to which compute/data scale advantages increase incumbents' market share ...
Concentration of compute and model development creates market power for Northern institutions and companies, likely leading to unequal pricing, control over standards, and capture of high-value climate services.
Descriptive mapping of concentration plus economic analysis of market structure and returns to scale; illustrative rather than quantitatively proven across markets.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Market power indicators (pricing, standard-setting control, market share in clim...
Rapid AI adoption without a shift from model-centric to data- and equity-centric development risks producing systematically worse performance and misleading recommendations for the most climate-vulnerable, data-sparse regions.
Synthesis of domain-specific case studies (weather/climate, impact models, LLMs) and conceptual causal tracing demonstrating how infrastructure asymmetry can degrade outputs in vulnerable regions; evidence illustrative rather than causal-estimate based.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Model performance and recommendation quality in climate-vulnerable, data-sparse ...
Large language models (LLMs) that rely on dominant, textualized climate knowledge tend to foreground Northern epistemologies and marginalize local or indigenous knowledge, reinforcing biases in climate narratives and recommendations.
Case studies and analysis of training-corpus composition and output examples illustrating the dominance of Northern textual sources and examples of sidelining local knowledge; no large-scale audit results provided.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Representation of local/indigenous knowledge in LLM outputs and bias in generate...
In climate impact modelling, sparse and unrepresentative exposure and vulnerability data combined with inadequate validation generate high uncertainty and risk of misleading interventions and maladaptation in vulnerable locales.
Targeted case studies and literature synthesis showing gaps in exposure/vulnerability datasets and validation failures; argument is illustrated rather than quantified across all systems.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Uncertainty in impact estimates and likelihood of misleading policy/intervention...
In weather and climate modelling, historically and spatially biased observational data produce systematic performance gaps in under-observed tropical and low-income regions, reducing forecast fidelity where adaptive capacity is lowest.
Comparative, domain-specific case studies and literature review documenting observational data sparsity and illustrative empirical performance gaps; no single cross-system statistical estimate provided.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Forecast fidelity/accuracy in under-observed tropical and low-income regions (mo...
The geographic concentration of compute and model development creates path dependence: model design, training datasets, and validation reflect Northern priorities and contexts.
Conceptual analysis supported by cross-disciplinary synthesis and illustrative case studies showing dataset selection, validation practices, and model design choices aligned with Northern contexts rather than global representativeness.
medium negative The Rise of AI in Weather and Climate Information and its Im... Degree of alignment between model design/validation choices and Northern (vs. lo...
At the organizational scale, AI adoption is constrained and shaped by compliance requirements, formal policies, and prevailing norms.
Participants' accounts in workshops (n=15) noting compliance and policy considerations; thematic analysis classified these as organizational-level constraints.
medium negative The Values of Value in AI Adoption: Rethinking Efficiency in... organizational-level constraints on adoption (compliance, policy, norms) and res...
Creators who systematize high-throughput AI workflows or control distribution channels may capture outsized returns, potentially increasing winner-take-most dynamics on platforms.
Theoretical implication extrapolated from observed high-throughput practices and monetization strategies in the 377 videos; not directly measured or quantified in the dataset.
medium negative Monetizing Generative AI: YouTubers' Collective Knowledge on... earnings concentration / market concentration effects (suggested, not measured)
Widespread unverifiable income claims and promotional framing create noisy signals about viable earnings, complicating entrants’ investment decisions and labor market expectations.
Analytical inference based on the documented prevalence of unverifiable earnings claims in the 377 videos and theory about market signaling; not quantitatively tested in the paper.
medium negative Monetizing Generative AI: YouTubers' Collective Knowledge on... information quality / market signaling affecting entrant decisions (hypothesized...
GenAI lowers the time and skill cost of producing many types of creative outputs, which can increase content supply and exert downward pressure on wages for routine creative tasks.
Inference drawn as an implication from observed practices (e.g., mass production workflows) in the 377 videos and existing literature; not directly measured in this study.
medium negative Monetizing Generative AI: YouTubers' Collective Knowledge on... potential change in labor costs, content supply, and wage pressure (not empirica...
Creators and the community knowledge base document shifting norms around authorship and attribution: GenAI blurs who is considered the creator and complicates labor recognition and rights.
Coding captured explicit discussion and contested norms about authorship, attribution, and creator identity across the 377 videos.
medium negative Monetizing Generative AI: YouTubers' Collective Knowledge on... frequency and content of discussions about authorship and attribution
Some creators recommend or describe synthetic engagement practices (e.g., automated posting, synthetic comments/engagement) as tactics to inflate visibility.
Thematic coding noted advice or descriptions of engagement-inflating tactics across videos in the 377-video corpus.
medium negative Monetizing Generative AI: YouTubers' Collective Knowledge on... presence of recommendations for synthetic or automated engagement tactics
Creators surface and often employ practices that raise content misappropriation concerns (use of copyrighted or third-party material in synthetic outputs).
Instances and discussions captured in the 377-video sample where creators show or recommend synthesizing, transforming, or repurposing third‑party content.
medium negative Monetizing Generative AI: YouTubers' Collective Knowledge on... occurrence of recommendations or demonstrations involving third-party/copyrighte...
Many videos advertise earnings or income claims that are unverifiable within the content, producing noisy market signals.
Qualitative observations from coding the 377 videos noting frequent asserted earnings without reproducible evidence or transparent accounting.
medium negative Monetizing Generative AI: YouTubers' Collective Knowledge on... presence of unverifiable income/earnings claims in videos
Interpretation: observed behavior is best explained by ambiguity aversion over data-leak likelihoods — uncertainty about leak probabilities drives avoidance of personalized AI more than baseline privacy preferences alone.
Comparative pattern of results across the Risk and Ambiguity conditions in the randomized experiment (N = 610): no privacy-threat effect when probability is known (Risk), but large privacy-threat effect when probability is ambiguous (Ambiguity), leading authors to attribute effects to ambiguity aversion.
medium negative The Data-Dollars Tradeoff: Privacy Harms vs. Economic Risk i... Adoption choice differences across information environments (interpreted mechani...
The ambiguity-driven reduction in adoption occurs for both privacy-threatening labels applied to sensitive demographic data and to anonymized preference data — ambiguity reduces adoption regardless of the data-sensitivity label.
Experimental arms varied the data-type/privacy label (sensitive demographic data vs anonymized preference data) within the 2×3 design (N = 610). The paper reports that the negative effect of ambiguity on adoption was observed across these different data-type labels.
medium negative The Data-Dollars Tradeoff: Privacy Harms vs. Economic Risk i... Adoption choice: proportion choosing AI-personalized basket by data-type/privacy...
Platform-mediated visibility measures used in policy assessments, business analytics, and research (e.g., estimating market share, referral importance, or favoritism) are at risk of misestimation if measurement stochasticity is not incorporated.
Empirical demonstration that citation shares and domain ranks vary across repeated samples and that many apparent differences disappear once uncertainty is quantified; argument linking visibility stochasticity to downstream inference and decision risks.
medium negative Quantifying Uncertainty in AI Visibility: A Statistical Fram... accuracy of downstream inferences (market share, referral importance, favoritism...
The heavy-tailed nature of citation distributions implies long tails and high variance, meaning achieving tight uncertainty bounds can require substantially more sampling than would be expected under thin-tailed assumptions.
Observed power-law / heavy-tailed citation-count distributions from repeated-sample data; theoretical implication and empirical guidance from variance estimates and pilot-sample analyses described in the paper.
medium negative Quantifying Uncertainty in AI Visibility: A Statistical Fram... required sample size (number of repeated queries) to achieve target confidence-i...
Numerical simulations using calibrated parameter sets produce phase diagrams and time-paths that show when gradual adjustment transitions into explosive demand collapse and financial stress under different combinations of capability growth, diffusion speed, and reinstatement rate.
Calibrated numerical simulation experiments described in the methods and results sections, using FRED, BLS, and occupational AI-exposure inputs and varying key model parameters.
medium negative Abundant Intelligence and Deficient Demand: A Macro-Financia... simulated time-paths of labor income, consumption, AI adoption, intermediary mar...
Because consumption is concentrated and top incomes have high AI exposure, shocks to top-income labor/income disproportionately affect aggregate consumption and thereby threaten private credit and mortgage markets — the paper maps plausible exposures to roughly $2.5 trillion of global private credit and about $13 trillion of mortgages.
Calibration exercise linking household-level demand shocks (based on concentration and AI-exposure mapping) to aggregate credit and mortgage aggregates; reported dollar-amount mappings in the paper's scenarios.
medium negative Abundant Intelligence and Deficient Demand: A Macro-Financia... aggregate consumption loss and exposed credit/mortgage balances (USD trillions)
Top-quintile households are also the cohort with the highest measured AI exposure (i.e., incomes/occupations most exposed to AI substitution), increasing the concentration of AI-driven demand risk.
Mapping occupation-level AI-exposure indices to household income quantiles using BLS occupation employment and wage data; used in calibration and scenario analysis.
medium negative Abundant Intelligence and Deficient Demand: A Macro-Financia... AI exposure by income quantile (top quintile exposure)
Intermediation collapse: AI agents reduce information frictions and automate advice/coordination tasks, compressing intermediary margins toward logistics/execution costs and repricing business models across SaaS, payments, consulting, insurance, and financial advisory, with knock-on effects for firm valuations and collateral values that underpin credit markets.
Modeling of intermediary margins and information rents within the macro-financial framework; calibrated scenarios and sectoral discussion mapping margin compression to valuation and collateral effects.
medium negative Abundant Intelligence and Deficient Demand: A Macro-Financia... intermediary markups/margins, firm valuations, collateral values, and credit-mar...
Ghost GDP: AI output that replaces labor-intensive output can create a wedge between measured GDP (which may rise) and consumption-relevant income (which can fall) because a declining labor share reduces monetary velocity absent proportionate transfers — producing hidden demand shortfalls.
Formalization in the paper linking labor share to monetary velocity and thus to consumption-relevant income; calibration using FRED macro time series and monetary-aggregate/velocity proxies.
medium negative Abundant Intelligence and Deficient Demand: A Macro-Financia... monetary velocity and consumption-relevant income (consumption) versus headline ...