The Commonplace
Home Papers Evidence Explore Trends Syntheses Digests About 🎲 Workforce Futures
Direction, evidence grade, and study type are AI-generated labels (gpt-5-mini), not human-verified. Syntheses are LLM-written. "Tensions" are machine-detected candidates, not confirmed contradictions. A research-acceleration tool, not peer review. How this is built →

Evidence (8807 claims)

Search and filter individual claims pulled from the papers. Looking for a specific finding ("what's the effect on wages?"), you're in the right place. Want to compare whole outcome categories against each other instead? Use the Evidence Explorer.

The board below groups claims two ways: by broad theme (nine paper-level topics) and by outcome category (the 34 claim-level outcomes that the Explorer and Syntheses also use).

Browse by theme

Nine broad, paper-level topics. Click one to filter the claims below.

Adoption
9875 claims
Filter claims →
Productivity
8807 claims
Filtered →
Governance
7870 claims
Filter claims →
Human-AI Collaboration
7560 claims
Filter claims →
Org Design
4892 claims
Filter claims →
Innovation
4781 claims
Filter claims →
Labor Markets
4004 claims
Filter claims →
Skills & Training
3308 claims
Filter claims →
Inequality
2332 claims
Filter claims →

Claims by outcome category

Counts by direction of finding. These are the same 34 outcome categories the Explorer compares and the Syntheses are written for. A linked row has a published synthesis.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 870 233 116 1066 2363
Governance & Regulation 976 451 218 133 1809
Organizational Efficiency 949 224 144 88 1416
Technology Adoption Rate 764 287 141 122 1325
Research Productivity 501 152 74 362 1101
Output Quality 542 216 69 69 896
Decision Quality 387 198 94 54 740
Firm Productivity 513 67 101 27 714
AI Safety & Ethics 249 303 73 36 667
Market Structure 190 192 134 27 548
Task Allocation 243 77 91 36 452
Innovation Output 291 33 55 20 401
Skill Acquisition 206 72 65 21 364
Employment Level 133 63 115 22 335
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 153 79 52 32 323
Task Completion Time 206 37 12 15 272
Firm Revenue 179 52 29 5 266
Consumer Welfare 130 76 47 13 266
Inequality Measures 48 137 51 6 242
Worker Satisfaction 101 81 25 13 220
Error Rate 84 110 11 5 210
Wages & Compensation 98 47 30 10 185
Regulatory Compliance 88 73 17 7 185
Automation Exposure 66 64 33 16 182
Team Performance 105 29 30 11 176
Training Effectiveness 109 22 14 21 168
Developer Productivity 114 21 14 8 158
Job Displacement 12 90 24 1 127
Hiring & Recruitment 57 9 9 5 80
Skill Obsolescence 6 56 9 1 72
Social Protection 43 17 8 2 70
Creative Output 35 21 9 4 70
Labor Share of Income 18 21 17 1 57
Worker Turnover 15 16 4 35
Industry 1 1
Clear
Productivity Remove filter
Developers actively manage the collaboration, externalizing plans into persistent artifacts, and negotiating AI autonomy through context injection and behavioral constraints.
Observed behaviors in chat transcripts and committed artifacts showing developers creating persistent plans, injecting context, and specifying constraints to shape AI behavior.
high mixed Programming by Chat: A Large-Scale Behavioral Analysis of 11... practices for managing AI collaboration (externalization of plans, context injec...
Developers redistribute cognitive work to AI, delegating diagnosis, comprehension, and validation rather than engaging with code and outputs directly.
Content and interaction analyses of chat sessions showing developer prompts delegating diagnosis, comprehension, and validation tasks to the AI assistants (Cursor and GitHub Copilot) across the dataset.
high mixed Programming by Chat: A Large-Scale Behavioral Analysis of 11... allocation of cognitive tasks (diagnosis, comprehension, validation) between dev...
Conversational programming operates as progressive specification, with developers iteratively refining outputs rather than specifying complete tasks upfront.
Qualitative/content analysis of the 74,998 messages across 11,579 sessions indicating patterns of iterative prompts and refinements rather than one-shot complete specifications.
high mixed Programming by Chat: A Large-Scale Behavioral Analysis of 11... mode of task specification (iterative refinement vs complete upfront specificati...
The influence of human capital (number of specialists in scientific and technological fields) on value added varies across sectors.
Number of specialists in scientific and technological fields included as a covariate in MMQR; reported heterogeneous effects across sectors/quantiles in the results section.
The influence of R&D expenditure on value added varies across sectors.
R&D expenditure included as a core explanatory variable in panel MMQR estimations; authors report differing coefficient sizes/signs across sectors/quantiles.
These AI capability improvements would impact the economy and labor market as organizations adopt AI, which could have a substantially longer timeline.
Theoretical implication/interpretation by the authors (economic and labor market impact contingent on organizational adoption; timeline longer than capability improvements).
high mixed Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI ... impact on economy and labor market (timing and magnitude of effects)
AI automation is a continuum between (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based.
Conceptual framing proposed by the authors (theoretical proposition).
high mixed Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI ... pattern of AI capability change across tasks (crashing waves vs rising tides)
This paper proposes three archetypal AI technology types: AI for effort reduction, AI to increase observability, and mechanism-level incentive change AI.
Conceptual taxonomy introduced by the authors (theoretical classification presented in the paper).
high mixed Incentives, Equilibria, and the Limits of Healthcare AI: A G... typology of AI technologies (categorical classification)
Big Data-based FinTech can contribute to financial stability only when its implementation is strategically justified, ethically grounded and supported by effective regulation, robust data governance and investment in human capital.
Normative conclusion drawn from systemic and structural analysis of literature and synthesis of empirical studies; no empirical test provided within the paper.
high mixed Implications of Big Data Technologies for the Resilience of ... contribution of Big Data-based FinTech to financial stability conditional on gov...
The effectiveness of Big Data solutions varies across the financial sphere and depends critically on data quality, regulatory alignment and organisational readiness.
Derived from comparative analysis of sector-specific applications and synthesis of findings in the reviewed literature; no quantified cross-sector sample reported.
high mixed Implications of Big Data Technologies for the Resilience of ... effectiveness of Big Data solutions
AI intensity and employment elasticity are linked by a U-shaped relationship.
Result reported by the paper based on the authors' empirical/econometric analysis of international datasets (OECD/ILO/World Bank).
high mixed Impact Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) On Employment employment elasticity (relationship to AI intensity)
The paper analyzes AI as a continuous process using data from the OECD, ILO, and the World Bank to study job displacement, creation, and reallocation.
Empirical analysis described in the paper using datasets from OECD, ILO, and World Bank; econometric approach implied.
high mixed Impact Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) On Employment job displacement, job creation, and job reallocation
AI is recognized as a primary change agent that influences various aspects of economies the world over, and thus it profoundly changes not only the number of jobs but also their quality.
Stated as a high-level conclusion in the paper's introduction/abstract; based on literature synthesis of studies from 2013-2025 and references to international sources (OECD, ILO, World Bank).
high mixed Impact Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) On Employment number of jobs and job quality (employment and quality of work)
AI plays a dual role by enhancing productivity while intensifying energy use in the short run.
Synthesis of empirical findings in the paper: documented short-run increase in electricity growth (energy use) following AI adoption alongside statements/evidence that AI enhances productivity (exact productivity measures and estimates not provided in the summary).
high mixed The Impact of AI Adoption on Electricity Output Growth Gap: ... productivity (improvement) and corporate electricity output growth gap (increase...
The four-variable account (produced output, underlying understanding, calibration accuracy, self-assessed ability) better explains phenomena like overconfidence, over- and under-reliance on AI, 'crutch' effects, and weak transfer than the simpler claim that generative AI merely amplifies the Dunning–Kruger effect.
Argumentative synthesis in the paper comparing explanatory power of the proposed four-variable framework against the more general Dunning–Kruger metaphor; draws on examples and empirical patterns from the reviewed literature rather than a single empirical test.
high mixed Beyond the Steeper Curve: AI-Mediated Metacognitive Decoupli... explanatory fit for phenomena such as overconfidence, reliance patterns, crutch ...
A useful working model is 'AI-mediated metacognitive decoupling': LLM use widens the gap among produced output, underlying understanding, calibration accuracy, and self-assessed ability.
Conceptual synthesis and theoretical proposal grounded in reviewed empirical findings from multiple literatures (human–AI interaction, learning research, model evaluation); presented as the paper's working model rather than as a single empirical estimate.
high mixed Beyond the Steeper Curve: AI-Mediated Metacognitive Decoupli... degree of alignment/decoupling between produced output, underlying understanding...
There is a fundamental trade-off between operational stability and theoretical deliberation across multi-agent coordination frameworks.
Empirical results from controlled benchmarks comparing agent architectures under fixed computational time budgets, as reported in the paper (no numeric sample size or statistical details provided in the abstract).
high mixed An Empirical Study of Multi-Agent Collaboration for Automate... operational stability versus depth/quality of theoretical deliberation
As technological progress devalues labor, the welfare benefits of steering are at first increased but, beyond a critical threshold, decline and optimal policy shifts toward greater redistribution.
Theoretical model extension analyzing planner's optimal choice as labor's economic value changes; the paper states a non-monotonic relationship with a critical threshold.
high mixed NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES welfare benefits of steering; optimal policy (steering vs redistribution)
Using pre-existing exposure as an instrument for ChatGPT adoption in a long-difference IV design, ChatGPT adoption causes households to spend more time on digital leisure activities while leaving total time spent on productive online activities unchanged.
IV long-difference empirical design: instrumenting household adoption with pre-ChatGPT exposure (2021 browsing); outcome measured as changes in categorized browsing durations (LLM-based classification into 'leisure' vs 'productive' sites); controls include demographic-by-region fixed effects and browsing composition controls.
high mixed https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.03144 change in time spent on digital leisure activities and total time on productive ...
Once efficiency is made explicit, the main practical question becomes how many efficiency doublings are required to keep scaling productive despite diminishing returns.
Framing/forecasting claim in the paper presenting an operational research question (conceptual; no empirical sample in excerpt).
high mixed The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Scaling Laws in AI required number of efficiency doublings to sustain productive scaling
The practical burden of scaling depends on how efficiently real resources are converted into that (logical) compute.
Argument in the paper linking conceptual 'logical compute' to real-world conversion efficiency (qualitative claim; no empirical sample in excerpt).
high mixed The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Scaling Laws in AI efficiency of converting real resources into logical compute
The compute variable is best understood as logical compute, an implementation-agnostic notion of model-side work.
Conceptual argument presented in the paper reframing 'compute' as an abstract, implementation-agnostic quantity (no empirical sample provided).
high mixed The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Scaling Laws in AI definition/interpretation of the 'compute' variable
These patterns are consistent with a reorganization of the scientific production process rather than immediate efficiency gains, in line with theories of general-purpose technologies.
Interpretation linking observed changes in budget allocation, team size, and task breadth (from the proposal dataset and task-level analyses) to theoretical predictions about general-purpose technologies (GPTs); empirical findings show organizational change rather than large average short-run productivity gains.
high mixed Artificial Intelligence in Science: Returns, Reallocation, a... organizational reorganization vs efficiency gains (qualitative interpretation)
This paper offers a forward-looking framework that emphasizes the decentralizing potential of AI on labor markets, moving beyond the traditional displacement-versus-creation dichotomy.
Paper's stated contribution; based on conceptual framework and synthesis of historical and contemporary analyses (no empirical validation presented in the abstract).
high mixed AI Civilization and the Transformation of Work conceptual framing of AI's labor-market effects
The emergence of artificial intelligence and robotics is catalyzing a profound transformation in the nature of human labor.
Stated as a central premise in the paper's abstract; supported by the paper's synthesis of economic history, contemporary labor market data, and analysis of digital platform growth (no specific datasets or sample sizes reported in the abstract).
high mixed AI Civilization and the Transformation of Work nature of human labor / structure of labor markets
The resulting AI safety profile is asymmetric: AI is bottlenecked on frontier research (novel tasks) but unbottlenecked on exploiting existing knowledge.
Theoretical implication of the novelty-bottleneck model distinguishing novel (human-judgment) vs. routine (covered by agent prior) components of tasks.
high mixed The Novelty Bottleneck: A Framework for Understanding Human ... AI capability bottlenecks in frontier research vs. exploitation
Wall-clock time can be reduced to O(√E) through team parallelism, but total human effort remains O(E).
Model-derived result showing parallelism across humans can speed wall-clock completion time while aggregate human effort does not drop asymptotically.
high mixed The Novelty Bottleneck: A Framework for Understanding Human ... wall-clock task completion time and total human effort
Better agents improve the coefficient on human effort but not the exponent (i.e., they reduce the constant factor but do not change the asymptotic scaling class).
Analytic result from the stylized model under the paper's assumptions about task decomposition and novelty fraction ν.
high mixed The Novelty Bottleneck: A Framework for Understanding Human ... human effort (coefficient vs. asymptotic scaling exponent)
India's systematic investment plan (SIP) flows provide a high-frequency observable for the model's endogenous participation rate and constitute the natural empirical laboratory for the displacement–participation mechanism.
Empirical suggestion in the paper proposing SIP flows as an observable proxy for the modelled participation rate and recommending India as a lab to test the displacement–participation channel (no empirical test reported in the excerpt).
high mixed When Does AI Raise the Equity Risk Premium? Displacement, Pa... equity market participation rate (proxied by SIP flows)
Three analytical results characterise non-linear financial fragility, regime-contingent risk premium divergence, and the general equilibrium alignment squeeze.
Stated analytical results in the paper derived from the theoretical model describing three named phenomena (non-linear fragility, regime-contingent divergence, alignment squeeze).
high mixed When Does AI Raise the Equity Risk Premium? Displacement, Pa... financial fragility / risk premium behaviour / alignment-induced output effects
Whether AI is equity-bullish or equity-bearish depends on which channel dominates—a condition that differs sharply between deep financial markets, where the ARP is the dominant driver of elevated risk premia (Regime D), and shallow markets, where participation compression dominates (Regime E).
Model regime analysis in the paper distinguishing Regime D (deep markets, ARP-dominated) and Regime E (shallow markets, participation-compression-dominated) and stating comparative dominance determines net bullish/bearish outcome.
high mixed When Does AI Raise the Equity Risk Premium? Displacement, Pa... net effect of AI on equity returns / ERP
The equilibrium equity risk premium decomposes into three additively separable terms corresponding to these three channels (Proposition 1).
Formal proposition (Proposition 1) in the paper deriving an additive decomposition of the equilibrium ERP into the productivity, participation compression, and alignment risk terms.
high mixed When Does AI Raise the Equity Risk Premium? Displacement, Pa... equity risk premium (ERP) decomposition
We develop a heterogeneous-agent framework in which AI-driven labour displacement affects the equity risk premium (ERP) through three co-equal channels.
Stated model contribution in the paper: a theoretical heterogeneous-agent framework that posits three channels linking AI-driven labour displacement to the ERP (productivity, participation compression, alignment risk).
The top four models are statistically indistinguishable (mean score 0.147–0.153) while a clear tier gap separates them from the remaining four models (mean score <= 0.113).
Reported mean performance scores across 8 models and statement of statistical indistinguishability for the top four vs lower-tier four; numerical means provided.
high mixed SWE-PRBench: Benchmarking AI Code Review Quality Against Pul... mean model performance score
Behavioral factors — specifically trust calibration, cognitive load, and affective reactions — shape the transition of corporate AI initiatives from pilot deployments to scalable, sustained use.
Synthesis of human-AI interaction literature integrated with adoption frameworks (TAM and TOE); conceptual linkage rather than new empirical testing in this paper.
high mixed Behavioral Factors as Determinants of Successful Scaling of ... success of pilot-to-production transition (scalability and sustained use)
AI accelerates value-chain maturation while creating distinct risks — including professional responsibility tensions and potential system-level externalities.
Conceptual argument and risk analysis in the Article (theoretical reasoning and synthesis of management/ethics literature). No empirical causal estimate reported in the excerpt.
high mixed Rewired: Reconceptualizing Legal Services for the AI Age acceleration of value-chain maturation and emergence of professional responsibil...
The legal profession is at a crossroads, caught between intensifying fears of AI-driven displacement and a generational opportunity for transformation.
Author's synthesis and framing in the Article (conceptual assessment; literature/contextual synthesis). No empirical sample or experiment reported in the excerpt.
high mixed Rewired: Reconceptualizing Legal Services for the AI Age risk of AI-driven displacement and opportunity for transformation in the legal p...
This advantage is contingent upon robust AI governance, ethical frameworks, and the transition from 'pilot-lite' projects to integrated, data-driven 'AI-first' business models.
Conditional claim in the paper linking success to governance, ethics, and organizational integration; appears to be normative/analytical rather than empirical in the abstract.
high mixed The AI Advantage: Strategic Innovation and Global Expansion ... dependency of AI-driven advantage on governance, ethics, and organizational inte...
Machine-readable metrics and open scholarly infrastructure are reshaping scholarly profiles and incentives.
Conceptual and historical discussion referring to platforms and metrics (e.g., arXiv, Google Scholar, ORCID) as mechanisms changing incentives; no new empirical estimates provided.
high mixed A Brief History of AI for Scientific Discovery: Open Researc... changes in scholarly incentives and profile construction due to machine-readable...
That interconnected ecosystem is fundamentally restructuring who can do science (access), how fast discoveries propagate, and what counts as a valid scientific contribution.
Argumentative claim linking infrastructural and tool changes to changes in access, dissemination speed, and norms of contribution. The paper presents examples and narrative but no systematic empirical evaluation or sample.
high mixed A Brief History of AI for Scientific Discovery: Open Researc... access to scientific practice, speed of discovery dissemination, and norms of sc...
The most consequential development is not any single tool but the emergence of an interconnected ecosystem—AI agents, preprint platforms, open source codebases, and citation infrastructure—that forms a feedback loop.
Synthesis/argument based on multiple examples (LLM agents, preprint servers like arXiv, open-source code repositories, citation indices). No quantitative measurement or causal identification reported.
high mixed A Brief History of AI for Scientific Discovery: Open Researc... emergence of an interconnected scientific infrastructure ecosystem
The central tension in AI for science is between automation (building systems that replace human researchers) and augmentation (tools that amplify human creativity and judgement).
Analytical claim based on the paper's review of historical examples and conceptual discussion; no primary data or experimental design reported.
high mixed A Brief History of AI for Scientific Discovery: Open Researc... relationship between automation and augmentation in research practice
Science has repeatedly delegated its bottlenecks to machines—first inference, then search, then measurement, then the full workflow—and each delegation solves one problem while exposing a harder one underneath.
Interpretive historical argument drawing on examples across AI-for-science milestones (e.g., DENDRAL, search and inference systems, measurement automation, and contemporary end-to-end workflows). No quantitative sample or experimental method reported.
high mixed A Brief History of AI for Scientific Discovery: Open Researc... pattern of delegation and emergent bottlenecks in research workflows
Testing revealed AI excels at computational tasks but consistently misses nuanced factors like new construction rent premiums and infrastructure proximity impacts, validating the framework's hybrid structure as essential for professional-grade underwriting.
Findings from the controlled ChatGPT-4 test on the single 150-unit scenario: qualitative and comparative observations showing AI handled computations well but failed to capture specific local-market nuances, leading authors to endorse a hybrid human-AI framework.
Phase Two requires human-led professional validation to correct AI limitations, apply local market knowledge, and integrate risk factors.
Framework description supported by observations from the controlled test where human review was used to correct AI outputs and apply local knowledge (e.g., adjusting for nuanced market factors).
Traffic performance is sensitive to the distribution of safe time gaps and the proportion of RL vehicles.
Simulation results comparing Fundamental Diagrams across scenarios with different distributions of safe time gaps and shares of RL-controlled vehicles. Number of simulation runs or replicates not stated in the claim text.
high mixed Macroscopic Characteristics of Mixed Traffic Flow with Deep ... traffic performance (e.g., flow, capacity) sensitivity to time-gap distribution ...
AUROC_2 and M-ratio produce fully inverted model rankings, demonstrating these metrics answer fundamentally different evaluation questions.
Metric comparison across models showing that AUROC_2-based ranking and M-ratio-based ranking are fully inverted in the reported results on the evaluated dataset.
high mixed Do LLMs Know What They Know? Measuring Metacognitive Efficie... model ranking by AUROC_2 versus model ranking by M-ratio
Temperature manipulation shifts Type-2 criterion while meta-d' remains stable for two of four models, dissociating confidence policy from metacognitive capacity.
Experimental manipulation (temperature changes) applied to models; reported result that Type-2 criterion shifted with temperature while meta-d' was stable for two models (out of four) in the 224,000-trial dataset.
high mixed Do LLMs Know What They Know? Measuring Metacognitive Efficie... Type-2 criterion (confidence policy) and meta-d' (metacognitive capacity)
Metacognitive efficiency is domain-specific, with different models showing different weakest domains, invisible to aggregate metrics.
Domain-level analyses reported in the paper showing per-domain M-ratio results and identification of different weakest domains per model, contrasted with aggregate metric behavior.
high mixed Do LLMs Know What They Know? Measuring Metacognitive Efficie... domain-specific metacognitive efficiency (M-ratio) across task domains
Metacognitive efficiency varies substantially across models even when Type-1 sensitivity is similar — Mistral achieves the highest d' but the lowest M-ratio.
Empirical comparison of Type-1 sensitivity (d') and metacognitive efficiency (M-ratio) across the four evaluated LLMs on the 224,000 QA trials; explicit statement that Mistral had highest d' but lowest M-ratio.
high mixed Do LLMs Know What They Know? Measuring Metacognitive Efficie... Type-1 sensitivity (d') and metacognitive efficiency (M-ratio)