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Home Papers Evidence Explore Trends Syntheses Digests About 🎲 Workforce Futures
Direction, evidence grade, and study type are AI-generated labels (gpt-5-mini), not human-verified. Syntheses are LLM-written. "Tensions" are machine-detected candidates, not confirmed contradictions. A research-acceleration tool, not peer review. How this is built →

Evidence (8974 claims)

Search and filter individual claims pulled from the papers. Looking for a specific finding ("what's the effect on wages?"), you're in the right place. Want to compare whole outcome categories against each other instead? Use the Evidence Explorer.

The board below groups claims two ways: by broad theme (nine paper-level topics) and by outcome category (the 34 claim-level outcomes that the Explorer and Syntheses also use).

Browse by theme

Nine broad, paper-level topics. Click one to filter the claims below.

Adoption
10085 claims
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Productivity
8974 claims
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Governance
8062 claims
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Human-AI Collaboration
7749 claims
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Org Design
5057 claims
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Innovation
4896 claims
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Labor Markets
4088 claims
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Skills & Training
3372 claims
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Inequality
2377 claims
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Claims by outcome category

Counts by direction of finding. These are the same 34 outcome categories the Explorer compares and the Syntheses are written for. A linked row has a published synthesis.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 882 244 117 1097 2424
Governance & Regulation 1010 469 229 135 1875
Organizational Efficiency 977 235 149 90 1462
Technology Adoption Rate 781 299 143 128 1362
Research Productivity 506 155 74 363 1110
Output Quality 555 219 71 70 915
Decision Quality 395 200 95 54 751
Firm Productivity 523 67 101 27 724
AI Safety & Ethics 262 309 75 36 688
Market Structure 195 201 135 30 566
Task Allocation 248 77 96 38 464
Innovation Output 300 34 55 20 411
Skill Acquisition 207 75 65 21 368
Employment Level 138 67 119 24 350
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 156 80 53 33 329
Task Completion Time 211 38 13 16 280
Firm Revenue 183 52 29 5 270
Consumer Welfare 131 77 48 13 269
Inequality Measures 50 141 54 9 254
Worker Satisfaction 104 85 25 13 227
Error Rate 87 112 11 5 215
Automation Exposure 69 69 37 20 198
Wages & Compensation 102 49 31 11 193
Team Performance 115 30 30 11 187
Regulatory Compliance 88 74 17 7 186
Training Effectiveness 109 22 14 21 168
Developer Productivity 116 21 15 8 161
Job Displacement 12 92 26 1 131
Hiring & Recruitment 57 12 9 5 83
Skill Obsolescence 6 59 10 2 77
Social Protection 43 17 8 2 70
Creative Output 35 21 9 4 70
Labor Share of Income 18 23 17 1 59
Worker Turnover 15 16 4 35
Industry 1 1
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Productivity Remove filter
The authors build a dynamic model of public good provision in which agents contribute by solving problems posted on a public platform and accumulated solutions form a depreciating public archive.
Methodological claim in the paper — statement that a dynamic theoretical model is constructed; this is a description of the paper's method.
high null result When AI Improves Answers but Slows Knowledge Creation: Match... structure of contributions and archive dynamics (model object)
Injecting generic green language into prompts has no reliable effect.
Controlled prompting experiments reported in the benchmark comparing prompts with 'generic green language' to other prompt types; claim of no reliable effect on measured footprint (no numerical statistics given in abstract).
high null result On the Carbon Footprint of Economic Research in the Age of G... carbon footprint / runtime of the workflow under 'green language' prompts
This paper has been accepted at PEARC 2026.
Statement in the paper indicating conference acceptance.
The University's GIS Center Ecological Archive (849 curated datasets) serves as a single-agent baseline deployment of EnviSmart.
Reported deployment dataset count provided in the paper: 849 curated datasets used as a single-agent baseline.
high null result Exploring Robust Multi-Agent Workflows for Environmental Dat... number of curated datasets in baseline deployment
The experiment used stratified randomization across 32 strata with 255 treatment firms and 260 control firms; baseline characteristics are well balanced across groups.
Experimental design description: stratification by geography, traction score, and baseline AI use; reporting of allocation counts and balance tests in Table 2.
high null result Mapping AI into Production: A Field Experiment on Firm Perfo... randomization balance (baseline covariates)
Attrition from the accelerator was low (1.6%, eight ventures) and balanced across treatment and control.
Program enrollment and retention records for the 515 firms in the randomized accelerator; 8 firms attrited.
high null result Mapping AI into Production: A Field Experiment on Firm Perfo... attrition / program dropout rate
The gains from treatment are broad-based: there are no significant differential effects by baseline firm performance or founder technical background.
Heterogeneity/subgroup analyses in the randomized sample (515 firms) comparing treatment effects across strata defined by baseline traction and founder technical background.
high null result Mapping AI into Production: A Field Experiment on Firm Perfo... heterogeneity of treatment effects by baseline performance and founder technical...
Treated firms' demand for labor remains unchanged.
RCT with 515 firms; firms reported labor demand/changes, comparison between treatment and control groups showed no significant change.
high null result Mapping AI into Production: A Field Experiment on Firm Perfo... demand for labor / employment
The authors measure the set of tasks that are automated in a given year via queries to ChatGPT's Deep Research (their 'heroic measurement').
Methodological statement in the introduction describing the measurement approach for identifying automated tasks.
high null result Past Automation and Future A.I.: How Weak Links Tame the Gro... method for identifying automated tasks in historical accounting
When the automation process is continuous, firms switch from labor to capital at exactly the point where costs are equal; the switching process itself generates no productivity growth.
Theoretical result (Proposition in the model) derived in the task-based framework under competitive equilibrium and the no-de-automation assumption.
high null result Past Automation and Future A.I.: How Weak Links Tame the Gro... productivity growth attributable to the immediate act of switching inputs when c...
Despite substantial expected AI progress, most respondents do not forecast major departures from recent macroeconomic baselines, citing factors like historical base rates, adoption lags, demographic headwinds, policy responses, and infrastructure bottlenecks.
Qualitative summary of respondents' reasoning accompanying their unconditional forecasts (Key Findings and 1.2 description of survey elicitation).
high null result Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI degree of departure from recent macroeconomic baselines in unconditional forecas...
These chats were committed to public repositories as part of routine development, capturing in-the-wild behavior.
Data collection method: analysis of chat transcripts that were committed to public repositories (authors state collected from repos and describe them as routine commits).
high null result Programming by Chat: A Large-Scale Behavioral Analysis of 11... degree to which collected chats represent in-the-wild developer behavior (public...
We analyze 74,998 developer messages from 11,579 chat sessions across 1,300 repositories and 899 developers using Cursor and GitHub Copilot.
Reported dataset counts in the paper (message, session, repository, developer counts) drawn from public commit histories of chats.
high null result Programming by Chat: A Large-Scale Behavioral Analysis of 11... number of developer messages / chat sessions / repositories / developers analyze...
We find little evidence of crashing waves (in contrast to recent work by METR).
Analysis of the >3,000 tasks and >17,000 evaluations which reportedly do not show abrupt, concentrated surges in AI capability on small sets of tasks.
high null result Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI ... presence of abrupt concentrated capability surges ('crashing waves')
The evaluation is based on more than 17,000 evaluations by workers from these jobs.
Reported sample of >17,000 human evaluations of model outputs.
high null result Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI ... number of human evaluations
We test for these effects in preliminary evidence from an ongoing evaluation of AI capabilities across over 3,000 broad-based tasks derived from the U.S. Department of Labor O*NET categorization that are text-based and thus LLM-addressable.
Empirical study design reporting an ongoing evaluation covering >3,000 text-based tasks mapped from O*NET.
high null result Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI ... coverage of LLM-addressable tasks (task sample)
This paper employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model using data from Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2012 to 2023 and uses the National Artificial Intelligence Innovative Application Pioneer Zone (AIIAPZ) policy as a quasi-natural experiment.
Staggered DID empirical design; sample described as Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms, 2012–2023; AIIAPZ policy used as treatment assignment (quasi-natural experiment).
high null result Does Artificial Intelligence Improve the Operational Resilie... methodological design / identification strategy (use of staggered DID and policy...
The study uses panel data from listed manufacturing firms in China and employs a quasi-natural experiment approach.
Statement in the abstract describing data source (panel of listed manufacturing firms in China) and empirical strategy (quasi-natural experiment).
high null result The impact of R&D innovation strategy on the sustainable... data source and identification strategy
Code authoring and review are only a small part of the larger software engineering process; the resulting code must also be maintained and updated over time.
Conceptual/argumentative claim presented in the paper to motivate longitudinal analysis (not presented as an empirical estimate from the dataset).
high null result Investigating Autonomous Agent Contributions in the Wild: Ac... relative share of authoring/review versus maintenance in software development (c...
We offer several longitudinal estimates of survival and churn rates for agent-generated versus human-authored code.
Longitudinal analysis reported in the paper comparing survival and churn for agent-generated and human-authored code over time using the dataset (paper states these estimates were produced).
high null result Investigating Autonomous Agent Contributions in the Wild: Ac... survival rates and churn rates of code contributions
We compare five popular coding agents, including OpenAI Codex, Claude Code, GitHub Copilot, Google Jules, and Devin, examining how their usage differs in various development aspects such as merge frequency, edited file types, and developer interaction signals, including comments and reviews.
Comparative analysis across agents using the constructed dataset of ~110,000 PRs (paper states these five agents were compared on metrics like merge frequency, edited file types, and interaction signals).
high null result Investigating Autonomous Agent Contributions in the Wild: Ac... merge frequency, edited file types, developer interaction signals (comments, rev...
We construct a novel dataset of approximately 110,000 open-source pull requests, including associated commits, comments, reviews, issues, and file changes, collectively representing millions of lines of source code.
Descriptive dataset construction reported in the paper (stated sample size ~110,000 PRs including commits, comments, reviews, issues, file changes; representing millions of lines of code).
high null result Investigating Autonomous Agent Contributions in the Wild: Ac... number of pull requests and total lines of source code in dataset
The paper extends classical (Solow) and endogenous (Romer) growth models to incorporate TAI, producing a dynamic framework for analyzing AI-driven structural change.
Methodological claim: the authors explicitly state they build on Solow (1956) and Romer (1990) to develop an integrated dynamic model that incorporates TAI; evidence is described model extension and formalization within the paper.
high null result Transformative AI and the Evolution of Growth Models: Extend... modeling framework / analytical capacity to study AI-driven structural change
The study is based on a qualitative analysis of recent academic literature, comparative analysis of sector-specific applications of Big Data technologies, and synthesis of empirical findings from international studies using a systemic and structural analysis approach.
Methodological statement within the paper describing data sources and analytic approach; not an empirical claim about outcomes.
high null result Implications of Big Data Technologies for the Resilience of ... methodological approach (literature synthesis, comparative analysis, systemic/st...
The research documents a transition in the literature (2013–2025) from early 'risk-of-automation' evaluations toward task-based and firm-level econometric models.
Literature review/synthesis across the 2013–2025 body of research as described in the paper.
high null result Impact Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) On Employment research methods / framework change
Society 5.0 and Industry 5.0 call for human-centric technology integration, but the concept lacks an operational definition that can be measured, optimized, or evaluated at the firm level.
Motivating claim grounded in literature gap analysis presented in the paper (argument that normative frameworks lack formal, operational metrics at firm level).
high null result From Automation to Augmentation: A Framework for Designing H... operationalizability/measurability of 'human-centricity' at firm level
We propose the Workplace Augmentation Design Index (WADI), a 36-item theory-grounded instrument for diagnosing human-centricity at the firm level.
Instrument design/proposal presented in the paper (36 items mapped to the five workplace-design dimensions); no validation sample reported in the abstract.
high null result From Automation to Augmentation: A Framework for Designing H... diagnosis/measurement of firm-level human-centric workplace design
We conducted a PRISMA-guided systematic review of 120 papers (screened from 6,096 records) to map the evidence base for each workplace-design dimension.
Systematic literature review using PRISMA protocol; final sample = 120 papers; initial records screened = 6,096.
high null result From Automation to Augmentation: A Framework for Designing H... coverage/evidence for each workplace-design dimension in the literature
Existing models of human-AI complementarity treat the augmentation function phi(D) as exogenous and thus ignore that two firms with identical technology investments can achieve radically different augmentation outcomes depending on workplace organization.
Argument based on literature review of prior models (the paper contrasts its approach with existing complementarity models). No new empirical sample reported for this specific claim.
high null result From Automation to Augmentation: A Framework for Designing H... augmentation outcomes (human-AI augmentation productivity)
The widening effect of AI adoption on the electricity output growth gap diminishes over time and becomes statistically insignificant after approximately three years.
Temporal (dynamic) empirical analysis / event-study-style estimation tracing the AI adoption effect over multiple years post-adoption; statistical significance reported to fade by year ~3. Sample size / exact time windows not provided in the summary.
high null result The Impact of AI Adoption on Electricity Output Growth Gap: ... corporate electricity output growth gap (time-varying effect)
The review employed a systematic analysis of multidisciplinary studies (qualitative, quantitative, and bibliometric) focused on agentic AI technologies in financial domains, covering literature published up to mid-2024.
Stated methodology of the paper (systematic review description).
high null result A Comparative & Systematic Review of Literature on the I... scope and methods of the review itself
The study adopted a positivist philosophy and a descriptive-correlational design.
Methods section statement in the paper describing the research philosophy and study design.
high null result Technology Innovation Strategy and the Competitiveness of Ke... research design / methodology
Data were collected from innovation-focused executives across 39 licensed Kenyan commercial banks.
Paper statement specifying sample source: 'Using data from innovation-focused executives across 39 licensed banks.'
high null result Technology Innovation Strategy and the Competitiveness of Ke... sample composition / data source
Technological innovation was assessed via adoption of new systems, integration of digital channels, and use of Artificial Intelligence and data analytics.
Measurement description provided in the paper listing the components used to operationalize technological innovation.
high null result Technology Innovation Strategy and the Competitiveness of Ke... measurement/operationalization of technological innovation
Competitiveness in the study was measured through market share, return on equity and customer satisfaction.
Measurement description provided in the paper describing dependent variable operationalization (explicit list of three indicators).
high null result Technology Innovation Strategy and the Competitiveness of Ke... measurement/operationalization of competitiveness
The user study had N=50 participants.
Reported user study sample size (N=50) used to evaluate AI-assisted intent expansion in ecologically valid settings.
high null result Structured Intent as a Protocol-Like Communication Layer: Cr... user study sample size
Under the current evaluation resolution, 5W3H, CO-STAR, and RISEN achieve similarly high goal-alignment scores, suggesting that dimensional decomposition itself is an important active ingredient.
Controlled comparison between three structured frameworks (5W3H, CO-STAR, RISEN) across the evaluated outputs, with no meaningful differences reported between them.
The study evaluated 3,240 model outputs (3 languages x 6 conditions x 3 models x 3 domains x 20 tasks) using an independent judge (DeepSeek-V3).
Reported experimental design and evaluation: 3 languages, 6 conditions, 3 models, 3 domains, 20 tasks; judged by DeepSeek-V3.
high null result Structured Intent as a Protocol-Like Communication Layer: Cr... number of model outputs evaluated / evaluation procedure
We implement a rigorously controlled execution-based testbed featuring Git worktree isolation and explicit global memory to evaluate agent coordination frameworks.
Methodological description in the paper indicating the testbed design choices (Git worktree isolation, explicit global memory) used to ensure controlled, reproducible execution of agent-generated code.
high null result An Empirical Study of Multi-Agent Collaboration for Automate... experimental reproducibility and isolation (testbed design)
We benchmark a single-agent baseline against two multi-agent paradigms: a subagent architecture (parallel exploration with post-hoc consolidation) and an agent team architecture (experts with pre-execution handoffs) using a rigorously controlled, execution-based testbed.
Description of experimental setup in the paper: an execution-based testbed with Git worktree isolation and explicit global memory; experiments explicitly compare single-agent, subagent, and agent-team architectures under fixed computational time budgets.
high null result An Empirical Study of Multi-Agent Collaboration for Automate... comparative performance of agent architectures (benchmarking setup)
Limitations: the Comscore data observe household internet activity on home (non-mobile) devices and do not capture offline or mobile device activities, so extrapolation to total at-home activities should be done with caution.
Authors' explicit limitation discussion in paper stating data do not include mobile devices or offline activities.
high null result https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.03144 data coverage (mobile/offline activities not observed)
ChatGPT adoption leaves the total time spent on productive online activities (including any time spent using ChatGPT) unchanged.
Same IV long-difference estimates as above; authors state 'leaving time spent on productive digital tasks unchanged' and that total productive activity time does not decline significantly.
high null result https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.03144 total time spent on productive online activities
The analysis uses detailed Internet browsing microdata from over 200,000 U.S. households' home devices from 2021 to 2024.
Comscore web browsing panel described in paper; authors state dataset covers 'over 200,000 U.S. households' across 2021-2024; data provides timestamps, visit durations, URLs, demographic bins, etc.
high null result https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.03144 size and coverage of browsing panel
We release the anonymized dataset and analysis with a new query intent taxonomy to inform future designs of real-world AI research assistants and to support realistic evaluation.
Paper states that the anonymized Asta Interaction Dataset, accompanying analysis, and a new query intent taxonomy are being released publicly.
high null result Understanding Usage and Engagement in AI-Powered Scientific ... data and taxonomy release
The Asta Interaction Dataset comprises over 200,000 user queries and interaction logs from two deployed tools (a literature discovery interface and a scientific question-answering interface) within an LLM-powered retrieval-augmented generation platform.
Statement in paper describing dataset composition: >200,000 user queries and interaction logs collected from two deployed tools (literature discovery and scientific Q&A) within an RAG platform. Dataset release described in methods/dataset section.
high null result Understanding Usage and Engagement in AI-Powered Scientific ... size and composition of dataset (number of queries, tools included)
Methods combine targeted literature synthesis, comparative conceptual analysis, and framework building (with recent scholarly and institutional sources reviewed).
Explicit methodological statement in the paper describing the review and analytic approach; no primary-data methods used.
high null result Behavioral Factors as Determinants of Successful Scaling of ... methodological approach (literature synthesis and conceptual framework developme...
AI coding assistants are a high-visibility class of corporate AI and are given special attention as an illustrative case in the paper.
Paper specifically calls out AI coding assistants as a focal example in the conceptual analysis and discussion; based on literature review rather than original measurement.
high null result Behavioral Factors as Determinants of Successful Scaling of ... role of coding assistants as illustrative case for scaling and behavioral dynami...
The Article translates these insights into risk-sensitive guideposts for modernizing governance of AI-enabled tools and emerging modalities, from agentic systems to blockchain-deployed smart contracts.
Prescriptive/conceptual policy guidance presented in the Article (normative recommendations; governance framework).
high null result Rewired: Reconceptualizing Legal Services for the AI Age provision of governance guideposts for AI-enabled legal technologies
The Innovation Frontier traces LegalTech’s evolution from 2000s-vintage e-discovery to generative AI.
Historical/chronological analysis in the Article (literature review/history of LegalTech provided by authors).
high null result Rewired: Reconceptualizing Legal Services for the AI Age narrative/historical scope of LegalTech evolution covered in the Article
The Legal Services Value Chain disaggregates the lifecycle of a legal matter into five distinct nodes of activity.
Model description in the Article (conceptual architecture; decomposition of legal work).
high null result Rewired: Reconceptualizing Legal Services for the AI Age number and structure of nodes in the proposed value-chain model