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Home Papers Evidence Explore Trends Syntheses Digests About 🎲 Workforce Futures
Direction, evidence grade, and study type are AI-generated labels (gpt-5-mini), not human-verified. Syntheses are LLM-written. "Tensions" are machine-detected candidates, not confirmed contradictions. A research-acceleration tool, not peer review. How this is built →

Evidence (7560 claims)

Search and filter individual claims pulled from the papers. Looking for a specific finding ("what's the effect on wages?"), you're in the right place. Want to compare whole outcome categories against each other instead? Use the Evidence Explorer.

The board below groups claims two ways: by broad theme (nine paper-level topics) and by outcome category (the 34 claim-level outcomes that the Explorer and Syntheses also use).

Browse by theme

Nine broad, paper-level topics. Click one to filter the claims below.

Adoption
9875 claims
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Productivity
8807 claims
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Governance
7870 claims
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Human-AI Collaboration
7560 claims
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Org Design
4892 claims
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Innovation
4781 claims
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Labor Markets
4004 claims
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Skills & Training
3308 claims
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Inequality
2332 claims
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Claims by outcome category

Counts by direction of finding. These are the same 34 outcome categories the Explorer compares and the Syntheses are written for. A linked row has a published synthesis.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 870 233 116 1066 2363
Governance & Regulation 976 451 218 133 1809
Organizational Efficiency 949 224 144 88 1416
Technology Adoption Rate 764 287 141 122 1325
Research Productivity 501 152 74 362 1101
Output Quality 542 216 69 69 896
Decision Quality 387 198 94 54 740
Firm Productivity 513 67 101 27 714
AI Safety & Ethics 249 303 73 36 667
Market Structure 190 192 134 27 548
Task Allocation 243 77 91 36 452
Innovation Output 291 33 55 20 401
Skill Acquisition 206 72 65 21 364
Employment Level 133 63 115 22 335
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 153 79 52 32 323
Task Completion Time 206 37 12 15 272
Firm Revenue 179 52 29 5 266
Consumer Welfare 130 76 47 13 266
Inequality Measures 48 137 51 6 242
Worker Satisfaction 101 81 25 13 220
Error Rate 84 110 11 5 210
Wages & Compensation 98 47 30 10 185
Regulatory Compliance 88 73 17 7 185
Automation Exposure 66 64 33 16 182
Team Performance 105 29 30 11 176
Training Effectiveness 109 22 14 21 168
Developer Productivity 114 21 14 8 158
Job Displacement 12 90 24 1 127
Hiring & Recruitment 57 9 9 5 80
Skill Obsolescence 6 56 9 1 72
Social Protection 43 17 8 2 70
Creative Output 35 21 9 4 70
Labor Share of Income 18 21 17 1 57
Worker Turnover 15 16 — 4 35
Industry — — — 1 1
Clear
Human Ai Collab Remove filter
We conduct the first large-scale study of human oversight in AI coding sabotage.
Authors state they ran a large-scale user study; described as the first such study focused on human oversight in AI coding sabotage (methodological claim).
high null result Coding with "Enemy": Can Human Developers Detect AI Agent Sa... existence/scale of study (methodological claim)
Traditional software and agentic systems are distinct: in traditional software code is the carrier of decision logic, whereas in agentic systems code is ephemeral tooling used by an LLM-driven reasoning loop.
Formalization and conceptual definitions developed in the paper (first-principles formal distinction; no empirical sample size reported).
high null result The End of Software Engineering: How AI Agents Are Fundament... architectural role of code (carrier of logic vs ephemeral tool)
For over half a century, software engineering has operated on a foundational premise: human engineers decompose problems, encode decision logic into static code, and manually adapt that code as requirements evolve.
Historical/descriptive claim presented in the paper's framing and literature review; citation of longstanding software engineering practices (qualitative, no empirical sample size reported).
high null result The End of Software Engineering: How AI Agents Are Fundament... software development practice (human-driven decomposition and static code mainte...
We implement a two-stage processing architecture separating document-level extraction (Stage 1) from claim-level synthesis (Stage 2).
Implementation description in paper: architecture design and pipeline stages described by the authors.
high null result Leveraging LLMs for Unstructured Claims Data Analysis system architecture (document-level vs claim-level processing)
The research is grounded in the Resource-Based View (RBV) and Dynamic Capabilities Theory (DCT) to explain how technological and managerial resources contribute to organizational performance.
Author statement in the paper describing the theoretical framework (RBV and DCT) used to frame the study.
high null result The Synergistic Impact of Human-Centric AI Adoption, Digital... other
The study adopts a quantitative research design and analyzes collected data using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM).
Author statement in the paper describing research design and analytical method.
high null result The Synergistic Impact of Human-Centric AI Adoption, Digital... other
Digital Leadership did not demonstrate a statistically significant direct effect on Employee Productivity (β = -0.094, p = 0.275).
Reported quantitative result from the study using PLS-SEM; β and p-value provided in the paper showing a non-significant direct effect. Sample size not reported in the excerpt.
high null result The Synergistic Impact of Human-Centric AI Adoption, Digital... Employee Productivity
We scored over 2.1 million twin responses on 500 participants and 183 held-out questions.
Reported evaluation counts in the paper: 2.1M responses, 500 participants, 183 held-out questions.
high null result Synthetic Personalities: How Well Can LLMs Mimic Individual ... number of evaluated twin responses / evaluation scale
The construction-method grid covers three open-weight LLMs, five cumulative information depths ranked by normalized Shannon entropy, two embedding methods, and two reasoning modes.
Paper's experimental design specification (methods section).
high null result Synthetic Personalities: How Well Can LLMs Mimic Individual ... experimental factorization of model types, information depths, embedding methods...
We construct detailed individual-level twins from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and evaluate them across a 3 × 5 × 2 × 2 construction-method grid.
Methodological description of the study: experimental construction and evaluation on SOEP data.
high null result Synthetic Personalities: How Well Can LLMs Mimic Individual ... feasibility of constructing and evaluating detailed individual-level twins from ...
A large-scale empirical study on Harvey LAB used 12,510 agent trajectories.
Paper states an empirical study run on Harvey LAB with a sample described as 12,510 agent trajectories.
high null result Parthenon Law: A Self-Evolving Legal-Agent Framework agent trajectories (dataset size)
AI-assisted feedback does not reduce time per character (i.e., it does not increase time cost per unit of feedback).
Time-per-character was measured in the randomized field experiment; authors report no reduction (no increase in time per character) associated with the AI-assisted drafts. Student-level/completion-level data from the experiment (n=88); 11 TAs.
high null result AI Assistance for Discretionary Work: Increasing Feedback Pr... time per character (effort per unit of feedback)
AI-assisted feedback does not negatively affect student usefulness ratings.
Measured student ratings of usefulness in the randomized field experiment; authors report no negative effect of the treatment on these ratings (no significant decrease reported). Student-level sample n=88; 11 TAs.
high null result AI Assistance for Discretionary Work: Increasing Feedback Pr... student usefulness ratings of feedback
Two-stage field experiments in healthcare prescription messaging encompassed 693,139 patient visits in total.
Paper statement of total sample size across Stage 1 and Stage 2.
high null result Beyond One-shot: AI Agents for Learning in Field Experiments total experimental sample size
Stage 2 (Tool-Augmented Agentic AI) autonomously extracted principles from Stage 1 data and generated 17 new message variants tested on 248,448 patient visits.
Study design and reported results from Stage 2 of the two-stage field experiment described in the paper.
high null result Beyond One-shot: AI Agents for Learning in Field Experiments experiment sample allocation (AI-generated variants and patient visits)
Stage 1 (Human + Chatbot) produced 13 message variants and was tested on 444,691 patient visits.
Study design details reported in the paper describing the two-stage field experiment.
high null result Beyond One-shot: AI Agents for Learning in Field Experiments experiment sample allocation (number of message variants and patient visits)
The empirical analysis is based on panel data of new energy vehicle firms in the Yangtze River Delta from 2001 to 2023.
Dataset description provided in the paper's abstract/introduction indicating the time span and regional coverage.
high null result Mechanisms and Effects of Artificial Intelligence on New Qua... dataset/time coverage
R&D expenditure does not constitute a significant mediating channel between artificial intelligence and firms' new quality productive forces.
Mediation analysis using the panel data and constructed indicators; reported nonsignificant mediation effect of R&D expenditure (no sample size or statistics reported in excerpt).
high null result Mechanisms and Effects of Artificial Intelligence on New Qua... new quality productive forces (mediating role of R&D expenditure)
The system was evaluated on OMH-Polyglot, a multilingual coding benchmark spanning Turkish, Arabic, Chinese, and code-switched specifications.
Experimental evaluation reported in the paper using the OMH-Polyglot benchmark.
high null result Cross-Lingual Token Arbitrage: Optimizing Code Agent Context... benchmark evaluation on OMH-Polyglot (coverage of languages and code-switched sp...
Brain privacy has both personal and social attributes; its protection therefore implicates individual interests and technological development.
Normative/legal argumentation and conceptual analysis presented in the paper (no empirical data reported).
high null result Empowerment or behavioral regulation? governing brain–comput... scope of brain-privacy (personal vs. social) and implicated interests
The experiment was run twice: a first run with unrealistically loud injections, and a second run with signals rescaled to a physically motivated SNR range.
Protocol described in paper explicitly states two runs with different injection SNR scalings (one 'unrealistically loud', one physically motivated).
high null result First head-to-head comparison of agentic AI applied to the a... other
Both agents received identical written specifications and identical compute resources.
Methodological statement in paper specifying that both agents were given the same written spec and the same shared computing infrastructure.
high null result First head-to-head comparison of agentic AI applied to the a... other
The pipeline comprised power spectral density estimation from raw Einstein Telescope simulated noise, geometric template bank generation, matched filter recovery of 100 binary black hole signal injections, automated results generation, and large language model-assisted production of a manuscript formatted in the style of Physical Review D.
Protocol description in paper; matched filter recovery included 100 injected signals (explicitly stated).
high null result First head-to-head comparison of agentic AI applied to the a... other
We compared two state-of-the-art agentic AI systems, Claude Code (Anthropic) and Codex (OpenAI), tasked with autonomously executing a simple end-to-end gravitational wave data analysis pipeline on a shared computing infrastructure without human intervention.
Experimental design described in paper: two named agents were given identical written specifications and identical compute resources and executed the full pipeline autonomously.
high null result First head-to-head comparison of agentic AI applied to the a... other
The audit samples 2,000 runs over a design space of 10 personas x 8 prompts x 3 model configurations x N=10 reps, with the two OpenAI cells at full 8-prompt coverage and the Anthropic sonnet-4.6 / low cell at 4-prompt coverage.
Stated audit design and sample counts in paper (method section describing factorial design and coverage of model/prompt cells).
high null result Persona Conditioning of Brand Recommendations in Retrieval-A... audit sample size and experimental design coverage
The paper evaluates the proposed architecture using the outcome metric 'time-to-insight'.
Methodological statement in the paper listing evaluation metrics.
high null result Beyond the Data Mesh Illusion: Designing Modern AI-augmented... time-to-insight (time required to generate actionable insight from data)
The paper evaluates the proposed architecture using the outcome metric 'time-to-find'.
Methodological statement in the paper listing evaluation metrics.
high null result Beyond the Data Mesh Illusion: Designing Modern AI-augmented... time-to-find (time required to locate relevant data/products)
The paper evaluates the proposed architecture using the outcome metric 'data product adoption'.
Methodological statement in the paper listing evaluation metrics.
high null result Beyond the Data Mesh Illusion: Designing Modern AI-augmented... data product adoption
In the first acquisition the acquirer pursued a disruptive 'rip-and-replace' strategy for the target’s proprietary ERP system.
Empirical observation from the paper's comparative case study of two consecutive acquisitions of the same digital target (qualitative case evidence).
high null result From Knowledge Loss To Knowledge Leverage: How Gen Ai Afford... IS integration strategy (rip-and-replace)
This paper contributes a large-scale empirical dataset involving 57,954 essays from 10,195 students across 120 schools over two years.
The paper explicitly states the dataset size and coverage in the abstract: 57,954 essays, 10,195 students, 120 schools, two-year period.
high null result Double-Edged Sword or Sharp Tool? Designing and Evaluating T... dataset_creation / sample coverage
We distill our findings into a meta-design and four design principles (DPs), grounded in kernel theories, for systems where human contextual intelligence and algorithmic recognition must coexist.
Design contribution presented in the paper (meta-design artifact and four DPs derived from the study).
high null result Schnitzel-Prediction: Designing Human-Ai Collaboration For C... design principles and meta-design artifact
We developed a collaborative forecasting system that leverages semantic processing using large language models (LLMs) to solve the 'cold-start' problem for novel menu items while preserving human agency via override mechanisms.
Description of system design and implementation produced during the ADR project (practice-driven abductive approach).
high null result Schnitzel-Prediction: Designing Human-Ai Collaboration For C... resolution of cold-start forecasting for novel menu items; preservation of human...
This paper reports on a 9-month action design research (ADR) project at a German financial services firm.
Explicit methodological description in the paper (study duration and organizational context).
high null result Schnitzel-Prediction: Designing Human-Ai Collaboration For C... study duration and setting
We examined how different degrees of embodiment affect team performance and conversational dynamics in a real-life escape room; teams were composed of either three humans or two humans and an artificial agent (a Box, an Avatar, or a hyper-realistic humanoid).
Experimental field study reported in the paper: a real-life escape room experiment comparing team compositions (3 humans vs. 2 humans + agent of three embodiment types). Sample size not reported in the provided text.
high null result Teaming Up with Artificial Agents in Non-routine Analytical ... team composition / experimental manipulation (embodiment)
To the best of the authors' knowledge, no prior study has examined the psychological mechanism through which algorithmic management shapes employee voice and silence behaviour outside of gig economy and platform work contexts.
Author claim based on literature review (stated gap in existing research).
high null result Algorithmic Management and Acquiescent Silence: The Mediatin... existence/absence of prior studies on psychological mechanisms in non-platform c...
Estimation accuracy depended only weakly on message volume, indicating that more text alone does not guarantee better inference.
Analysis reported in the paper examining the relationship between message volume and estimation accuracy; described as a weak dependency.
high null result Can AI Guess What You Know? Performance Comparison of Large ... relationship between message volume (amount of text) and model estimation accura...
We employ the Gemini API to generate reward function logic and weights across three refinement rounds rather than performing per-step inference.
Methodological description in abstract: use of Gemini API to generate reward logic and weights; three rounds of refinement.
high null result OccuReward: LLM-Guided Occupant-Centric Reward Shaping for D... LLM-mediated reward generation method
We deploy a Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) agent in CityLearn v2 for experiments.
Methodological description in abstract: SAC agent used within CityLearn v2 environment.
high null result OccuReward: LLM-Guided Occupant-Centric Reward Shaping for D... DRL agent deployment (method)
We use four empirically grounded occupant profiles from the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II (13,440 votes).
Dataset citation and sample size reported in abstract: ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II with 13,440 votes; four occupant profiles derived from it.
high null result OccuReward: LLM-Guided Occupant-Centric Reward Shaping for D... occupant profile representation (number of votes in dataset)
We ran 24 matches pairing 23 expert humans with 16 AI agents, capturing 387 delegation and 1440 adoption decisions.
Author-reported experimental setup and counts from the study (24 matches; 23 human experts; 16 AI agents; counts of delegation and adoption decisions).
high null result AI, Take the Wheel: What Drives Delegation and Trust in Huma... delegation and adoption decisions
The model introduces the 'Sciencepreneur' as the central human archetype in agentic R&D.
Conceptual/design claim within the HARMONY artifact presented in the paper.
high null result From Replacement to Orchestration: A Socio-Technical Archite... role definition and skill profile for human operators in agentic R&D
Evidence also includes pattern matching with documented agentic R&D deployments.
Methodological statement in the paper claiming pattern matching with documented agentic R&D deployments (unspecified number/source).
high null result From Replacement to Orchestration: A Socio-Technical Archite... similarity between proposed design and existing agentic R&D deployments
The study includes a foresight scenario analysis projecting four plausible 2040 R&D futures to stress-test design choices.
Methodological statement in the paper describing a four-scenario foresight analysis.
high null result From Replacement to Orchestration: A Socio-Technical Archite... plausibility and robustness of design across future scenarios
Empirical evidence for the design is triangulated from four semi-structured expert interviews with senior R&D leaders across industrial, healthcare, and academic settings.
Methodological statement in the paper specifying four semi-structured expert interviews.
high null result From Replacement to Orchestration: A Socio-Technical Archite... qualitative expert insights informing design
Because all observations come from a single practitioner, the inferential statistics are exploratory and hypothesis-generating rather than confirmatory; portability across the full portfolio awaits multi-practitioner replication.
Explicit limitation stated in the paper about the single-practitioner design and its implications for inference.
high null result Augment Engineering: A Methodology for Multi-Tool AI Orchest... generalizability/replicability of the findings
The framework is illustrated with an accounts-payable simulation and a companion spreadsheet.
Empirical illustration: the paper includes (or accompanies) an accounts-payable simulation and a spreadsheet to demonstrate the model and estimation approach.
high null result Modeling Agentic Technical Debt and Stochastic Tax: A Standa... practical illustration of framework through accounts-payable simulation and spre...
The note starts from a compact dashboard expression, expands it into a fuller structural model, defines all variables and parameters, and shows how each cost category can be estimated from operational data.
Methodological description in the paper: construction of dashboard, expansion to structural model, full variable/parameter definitions, and stated procedures for estimating cost categories from operational data; accompanied by worked examples.
high null result Modeling Agentic Technical Debt and Stochastic Tax: A Standa... methodological capacity to estimate agentic costs from operational data
Agentic Technical Debt is a stock of accumulated design and governance liability.
Definition provided in the paper as part of the conceptual framework that labels Agentic Technical Debt as a stock (accumulated) liability tied to design and governance.
high null result Modeling Agentic Technical Debt and Stochastic Tax: A Standa... conceptual characterization of Agentic Technical Debt (stock of design and gover...
This note develops a formal and managerially usable model that distinguishes Agentic Technical Debt from Stochastic Tax.
Author states development of a formal, managerially usable model and explicit distinction between the two constructs; supported by model construction in the paper (structural model and dashboard).
high null result Modeling Agentic Technical Debt and Stochastic Tax: A Standa... ability to distinguish Agentic Technical Debt from Stochastic Tax via a formal m...
Agentic AI systems combine probabilistic reasoning with delegated action through tools, context, memory, orchestration, and external workflow integration.
Conceptual/definitional statement in the paper; presented as the working characterization of 'Agentic AI systems' within the model specification.
high null result Modeling Agentic Technical Debt and Stochastic Tax: A Standa... structural composition of agentic AI systems (probabilistic reasoning + delegate...