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Home Papers Evidence Explore Trends Syntheses Digests About 🎲 Workforce Futures
Direction, evidence grade, and study type are AI-generated labels (gpt-5-mini), not human-verified. Syntheses are LLM-written. "Tensions" are machine-detected candidates, not confirmed contradictions. A research-acceleration tool, not peer review. How this is built →

Evidence (7560 claims)

Search and filter individual claims pulled from the papers. Looking for a specific finding ("what's the effect on wages?"), you're in the right place. Want to compare whole outcome categories against each other instead? Use the Evidence Explorer.

The board below groups claims two ways: by broad theme (nine paper-level topics) and by outcome category (the 34 claim-level outcomes that the Explorer and Syntheses also use).

Browse by theme

Nine broad, paper-level topics. Click one to filter the claims below.

Adoption
9875 claims
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Productivity
8807 claims
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Governance
7870 claims
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Human-AI Collaboration
7560 claims
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Org Design
4892 claims
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Innovation
4781 claims
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Labor Markets
4004 claims
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Skills & Training
3308 claims
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Inequality
2332 claims
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Claims by outcome category

Counts by direction of finding. These are the same 34 outcome categories the Explorer compares and the Syntheses are written for. A linked row has a published synthesis.

Outcome Positive Negative Mixed Null Total
Other 870 233 116 1066 2363
Governance & Regulation 976 451 218 133 1809
Organizational Efficiency 949 224 144 88 1416
Technology Adoption Rate 764 287 141 122 1325
Research Productivity 501 152 74 362 1101
Output Quality 542 216 69 69 896
Decision Quality 387 198 94 54 740
Firm Productivity 513 67 101 27 714
AI Safety & Ethics 249 303 73 36 667
Market Structure 190 192 134 27 548
Task Allocation 243 77 91 36 452
Innovation Output 291 33 55 20 401
Skill Acquisition 206 72 65 21 364
Employment Level 133 63 115 22 335
Fiscal & Macroeconomic 153 79 52 32 323
Task Completion Time 206 37 12 15 272
Firm Revenue 179 52 29 5 266
Consumer Welfare 130 76 47 13 266
Inequality Measures 48 137 51 6 242
Worker Satisfaction 101 81 25 13 220
Error Rate 84 110 11 5 210
Wages & Compensation 98 47 30 10 185
Regulatory Compliance 88 73 17 7 185
Automation Exposure 66 64 33 16 182
Team Performance 105 29 30 11 176
Training Effectiveness 109 22 14 21 168
Developer Productivity 114 21 14 8 158
Job Displacement 12 90 24 1 127
Hiring & Recruitment 57 9 9 5 80
Skill Obsolescence 6 56 9 1 72
Social Protection 43 17 8 2 70
Creative Output 35 21 9 4 70
Labor Share of Income 18 21 17 1 57
Worker Turnover 15 16 4 35
Industry 1 1
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Evaluations across eight state-of-the-art multimodal models reveal that models achieved only 55.0% accuracy on help prediction.
Experimental evaluation reported in the paper comparing eight multimodal models on the Help Prediction task with reported accuracy metric.
Evaluations across eight state-of-the-art multimodal models reveal that models achieved only 44.6% accuracy on behavior state detection.
Experimental evaluation reported in the paper comparing eight multimodal models on the Behavior State Detection task with reported accuracy metric.
high negative GUIDE: A Benchmark for Understanding and Assisting Users in ... behavior state detection accuracy
Ikema is a severely endangered Ryukyuan language spoken in Okinawa, Japan, with approximately 1,300 remaining speakers, most of whom are over 60 years old.
Demographic/descriptive claim reported in the paper's background (likely citing prior surveys or census estimates); the abstract states the ~1,300 speakers figure and age distribution.
high negative Automatic Speech Recognition for Documenting Endangered Lang... number and age distribution of speakers
The financial planning and investment management profession is undergoing a radical transformation driven by Generative AI (GenAI) and Agentic AI, creating urgent workforce displacement challenges that require coordinated government policy intervention alongside educational reform.
Author assertion in the paper's introduction/abstract; framing argument based on the paper's synthesized analysis (no empirical sample, no reported statistical test).
high negative STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL WORKFORCE COMPETITIVENESS: A CURRICU... rate of workforce displacement in the financial planning and investment manageme...
LLM design agents can fixate on existing paradigms and fail to explore alternatives when solving design challenges, potentially leading to suboptimal solutions (a pathology analogous to human designers).
Literature/background claim and authors' characterization of observed agent behavior; motivated the proposed metacognitive interventions. No numerical sample size reported.
high negative Supervising Ralph Wiggum: Exploring a Metacognitive Co-Regul... tendency to fixate on existing paradigms / lack of exploration leading to subopt...
Algorithmic management functions as 'psychological governance' that erodes worker mental health through surveillance, opacity, and precarity.
Synthesis/conclusion from integrating findings across the reviewed literature (48 studies) and the trilevel theoretical framework.
high negative Algorithmic Control and Psychological Risk in Digitally Mana... worker mental health (general deterioration)
Fear of deactivation (automated sanctions) creates chronic precarity; 78% report chronic fear.
Reported prevalence in the paper's synthesis of studies that measured fear of deactivation / account suspension among platform workers.
high negative Algorithmic Control and Psychological Risk in Digitally Mana... self-reported chronic fear of deactivation
Task defragmentation (fragmenting tasks via platform algorithms) leads to a reduced sense of accomplishment among drivers.
Thematic finding/proposition from the trilevel framework based on qualitative and quantitative evidence synthesized across studies.
high negative Algorithmic Control and Psychological Risk in Digitally Mana... reduced sense of accomplishment
Rating pressure is associated with emotional exhaustion, with 41–67% reporting high burnout.
Reported prevalence range in the paper's synthesis of included studies measuring burnout/emotional exhaustion among workers exposed to rating systems.
high negative Algorithmic Control and Psychological Risk in Digitally Mana... emotional exhaustion / high burnout prevalence
Income volatility from dynamic pricing is associated with depressive symptoms (reported prevalence range 23–41%).
Reported prevalence range in the paper's synthesized findings (from included empirical studies reporting depressive symptom prevalence among affected workers).
high negative Algorithmic Control and Psychological Risk in Digitally Mana... prevalence of depressive symptoms
Algorithmic opacity is linked to procedural anxiety.
Thematic proposition from the trilevel framework reported in the paper synthesizing pathways from algorithmic control to psychological risk.
Real estate pro forma development remains one of the most time-intensive functions in property investment, typically requiring twenty to forty hours per multifamily project through manual research, Excel-based modeling, and iterative scenario analysis.
Statement in paper asserting typical industry practice; not tied to the paper's controlled test. No empirical sample size or survey data reported alongside this assertion.
Work autonomy weakens the positive effect of AI avoidance job crafting on work alienation (buffering moderation).
Moderation analysis in the same dataset (287 employee–leader dyads) showing a significant interaction between AI avoidance job crafting and work autonomy predicting lower work alienation when autonomy is higher.
The negative effect of AI avoidance job crafting on career-relevant outcomes (career satisfaction and performance) is mediated by increased work alienation.
Mediation analysis on the multi-wave, multi-source survey data (287 employee–leader dyads) showing a pathway from AI avoidance job crafting → work alienation → worse career outcomes.
high negative Approach or avoidance? A dual-pathway model of job crafting ... career satisfaction and performance (mediated by work alienation)
AI avoidance job crafting negatively predicts career satisfaction and performance.
Multi-source, multi-wave survey of 287 employee–leader dyads in China linking employee-reported AI avoidance job crafting to lower career satisfaction and lower performance.
high negative Approach or avoidance? A dual-pathway model of job crafting ... career satisfaction and performance
The competence shadow compounds multiplicatively to produce degradation far exceeding naive additive estimates.
Analytic/closed-form performance bounds derived in the paper showing multiplicative compounding (theoretical result; no empirical sample reported).
The competence shadow is a systematic narrowing of human reasoning induced by AI-generated safety analysis; it is defined as not what the AI presents, but what it prevents from being considered.
Conceptual definition and formalization within the paper (theoretical exposition; no empirical test reported).
Safety engineering resists benchmark-driven evaluation because safety competence is irreducibly multidimensional, constrained by context-dependent correctness, inherent incompleteness, and legitimate expert disagreement.
Conceptual/theoretical argument and formalization presented in the paper (no empirical sample reported).
In experimental settings, the model is able to induce belief and behaviour changes in study participants.
Controlled experimental interventions reported in the study where participant beliefs and behaviors were measured pre/post or between conditions; aggregate result: model induced changes.
high negative Evaluating Language Models for Harmful Manipulation participant beliefs and behaviour changes (manipulative efficacy)
The tested model can produce manipulative behaviours when prompted to do so.
Human-AI interaction tests in which the model was prompted to produce manipulative behaviours; empirical observations reported in study across participants and prompts.
high negative Evaluating Language Models for Harmful Manipulation frequency/occurrence of manipulative behaviours (model propensity to produce man...
Standard evaluation of LLM confidence relies on calibration metrics (ECE, Brier score) that conflate two distinct capacities: how much a model knows (Type-1 sensitivity) and how well it knows what it knows (Type-2 metacognitive sensitivity).
Authors' conceptual argument and motivation for introducing a new evaluation framework; contrasted standard calibration metrics (ECE, Brier) with Type-1 vs Type-2 capacities in the paper's introduction and methods.
high negative Do LLMs Know What They Know? Measuring Metacognitive Efficie... confounding of calibration metrics between Type-1 sensitivity (knowledge) and Ty...
Traditional expert-based assessment faces a critical scalability challenge in large systems (e.g., serving 36 million children across 250,000+ kindergartens in China), making continuous quality monitoring infeasible and relegating assessment to infrequent episodic audits.
Authors' contextual motivation citing scale figures (36 million children, 250,000+ kindergartens) and describing time/cost constraints of manual observation leading to infrequent audits.
high negative When AI Meets Early Childhood Education: Large Language Mode... feasibility/scalability of manual expert-based assessment
There is a significant boundary in the reverse confidence scenario: a substantial proportion of participants struggled to override initial inductive biases and thus had difficulty learning in that condition.
Behavioral experiment (N = 200) reporting that many participants failed or struggled in the reverse confidence mapping condition; proportion described in paper (exact proportion not given here).
high negative Learning to Trust: How Humans Mentally Recalibrate AI Confid... failure/struggle rate in reverse confidence condition (ability to learn mappings...
Preliminary evaluation reveals that current foundation action models struggle substantially with professional desktop applications (~60% task failure rate).
Preliminary empirical evaluation reported by the authors; reported task failure rate ~60% (no sample size provided in abstract).
high negative CUA-Suite: Massive Human-annotated Video Demonstrations for ... task failure rate of foundation action models on professional desktop applicatio...
The largest existing open dataset, ScaleCUA, contains only 2 million screenshots, equating to less than 20 hours of video.
Quantitative statement about ScaleCUA reported in paper: 2,000,000 screenshots and <20 hours equivalence.
high negative CUA-Suite: Massive Human-annotated Video Demonstrations for ... size/coverage of existing open dataset (ScaleCUA)
Progress toward general-purpose CUAs is bottlenecked by the scarcity of continuous, high-quality human demonstration videos.
Asserted in paper as motivation; refers to the gap in available continuous video data for training CUAs.
high negative CUA-Suite: Massive Human-annotated Video Demonstrations for ... availability of continuous, high-quality human demonstration videos (data scarci...
Refining the state (as above) raises state-action blind mass from 0.0165 at \tau=50 to 0.1253 at \tau=1000.
Empirical measurement reported on the instantiated model over the BPI 2019 log showing state-action blind mass values at two threshold (tau) settings.
high negative The Stochastic Gap: A Markovian Framework for Pre-Deployment... state-action blind mass (measure of unsupported next-step decisions)
Empirical evidence shows that many failures arise from miscalibrated reliance, including overuse when AI is wrong and underuse when it is helpful.
Paper cites empirical literature (unspecified in excerpt) as the basis for this claim; no sample size or methods given here.
high negative From Accuracy to Readiness: Metrics and Benchmarks for Human... failures due to miscalibrated reliance (overreliance/underreliance)
Evaluation practices focus primarily on model accuracy rather than whether human-AI teams are prepared to collaborate safely and effectively.
Paper-level critique / literature observation asserted in text; no empirical method or sample reported in excerpt.
high negative From Accuracy to Readiness: Metrics and Benchmarks for Human... evaluation focus (accuracy vs. team readiness)
These harms increasingly translate into financial loss through litigation, enforcement penalties, brand erosion, and failed deployments.
Paper argues this linkage using conceptual reasoning and illustrative examples/case vignettes; cites regulatory and market incidents but does not provide systematic empirical estimates or a sample size.
AI systems can create material harms: discriminatory outcomes, privacy and security failures, opacity in decision logic, and regulatory noncompliance.
Paper lists these harms as core risks based on prior literature, regulatory developments, and conceptual risk analysis. Presented as well-documented categories rather than as new empirical findings; no sample size reported.
As artificial intelligence assumes cognitive labor, no existing quantitative framework predicts when human capability loss becomes catastrophic.
Introductory/background claim asserted by authors motivating the study (literature gap claim).
high negative The enrichment paradox: critical capability thresholds and i... absence of prior quantitative frameworks for catastrophic human capability loss
Broader AI scope lowers the critical threshold K* (i.e., more general AI reduces the K* value at which capability collapse occurs).
Model sensitivity analysis / simulations showing K* varies with assumed scope of AI (reported in model calibration discussion).
high negative The enrichment paradox: critical capability thresholds and i... change in critical threshold K* with AI scope
The model identifies a critical threshold K* approximately 0.85 (scope-dependent; broader AI scope lowers K*) beyond which capability collapses abruptly — the 'enrichment paradox.'
Model analysis and simulations calibrated across domains (paper reports computed threshold K* ≈ 0.85 and notes dependence on AI scope).
high negative The enrichment paradox: critical capability thresholds and i... critical delegation/capability threshold (K*) at which human capability collapse...
Fabrication risk is not an anomalous glitch but a foreseeable consequence of the technology's design, with direct implications for the evolving duty of technological competence.
Conclusion drawn from the paper's theoretical/physics-based analysis and the simulated scenario; stated in the abstract as the authors' interpretation and policy/legal implication.
high negative When AI output tips to bad but nobody notices: Legal implica... foreseeability of fabrication risk and implications for professional duty/compet...
The paper presents the physics-based analysis in a legal-industry setting by walking through a simulated brief-drafting scenario.
Methodological claim explicitly stated in the abstract: use of a simulated brief-drafting scenario to demonstrate the analysis.
high negative When AI output tips to bad but nobody notices: Legal implica... demonstration of fabrication risk in a simulated legal drafting task (output qua...
Although commonly dismissed as random 'hallucination', recent physics-based analysis of the Transformer's core mechanism reveals a deterministic component: the AI's internal state can cross a calculable threshold, causing its output to flip from reliable legal reasoning to authoritative-sounding fabrication.
Paper cites/relies on 'recent physics-based analysis' of Transformer mechanisms and states that it demonstrates a calculable threshold; the paper also purports to present this science in a legal setting (via simulation). No numeric experimental sample provided in the excerpt.
high negative When AI output tips to bad but nobody notices: Legal implica... transition from reliable reasoning to fabricated outputs (failure mode / interna...
Courts confront a novel threat to the integrity of the adversarial process due to fabricated authorities produced by generative AI.
Asserted in the abstract as a consequence of fabricated outputs; supported by the paper's conceptual argument and simulation reference rather than empirical court-case analysis.
high negative When AI output tips to bad but nobody notices: Legal implica... integrity of the adversarial process / decision quality in courts
Attorneys who unknowingly file such fabrications face professional sanctions, malpractice exposure, and reputational harm.
Stated as a legal/consequential claim in the abstract; no empirical evidence, case counts, or legal-statistics provided in the excerpt.
high negative When AI output tips to bad but nobody notices: Legal implica... professional sanctions, malpractice exposure, reputational harm
For law in particular, generative AI introduces a perilous failure mode in which the AI fabricates fictitious case law, statutes, and judicial holdings that appear entirely authentic.
Claimed in the paper; supported by the paper's analytic argument and a simulated brief-drafting scenario referenced in the abstract (no numeric sample provided).
high negative When AI output tips to bad but nobody notices: Legal implica... fabrication of legal authorities (authentic-appearing fake citations/holdings)
Measuring only technical model performance (such as predictive accuracy) is insufficient for assessing the strategic impact of AI in drug discovery.
Argued in the paper as a critique of current evaluation practices; presented as a conceptual point rather than supported by new empirical data in the excerpt.
high negative Strategic Key Performance Indicators for AI in Lead Optimiza... adequacy of technical model performance metrics for capturing strategic impact
Pressure remains high to increase the probability of success to improve the effectiveness of pharmaceutical R&D.
Asserted in the paper as motivational context for the work; framed as an industry pressure point rather than backed by a specific empirical sample or quantified survey in the excerpt.
high negative Strategic Key Performance Indicators for AI in Lead Optimiza... probability of success in pharmaceutical R&D
Increasing cost and failure rates in the pharmaceutical R&D process have not fundamentally improved over the last decade.
Stated as a contextual observation in the paper's opening paragraph; presented as a summary of industry trends (no specific dataset, sample size, or citation included in the excerpt).
high negative Strategic Key Performance Indicators for AI in Lead Optimiza... cost and failure rates in pharmaceutical R&D
Without support, performance stays stable up to three issues but declines as additional issues increase cognitive load.
Empirical study / human-AI negotiation case study in a property rental scenario that varied the number of negotiated issues; the paper reports observed performance across different numbers of issues (no sample size for this specific comparison stated in the abstract).
high negative From Overload to Convergence: Supporting Multi-Issue Human-A... negotiation performance (ability to find good agreements) under increasing numbe...
Reliance on automated content generation introduces risks of cognitive overreliance, algorithmic bias, and strategic misalignment.
The paper articulates these risks as conceptual/qualitative concerns in its discussion; no quantitative estimates or empirical tests of these specific risks are reported in the provided excerpt.
high negative The Strategic Impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence o... risks to decision-making including cognitive overreliance, algorithmic bias, str...
Wide disagreement among AIs created confusion and undermined appropriate reliance on advice.
Reported experimental finding from the paper: manipulating within-panel disagreement across tasks produced wide disagreement conditions that, according to the abstract, led to confusion and reduced appropriate reliance. No quantitative metrics reported in abstract.
high negative More Isn't Always Better: Balancing Decision Accuracy and Co... appropriate reliance on advice / decision-making
High within-panel consensus fostered overreliance on AI advice.
Experimental manipulation of within-panel consensus across the three tasks; the abstract reports that high consensus increased participants' reliance on AI (interpreted as overreliance). Specific measures and sample size not provided in abstract.
high negative More Isn't Always Better: Balancing Decision Accuracy and Co... reliance on AI advice (overreliance)
Developers and experts still lack a shared view, resulting in repeated coordination, clarification rounds, and error-prone handoffs.
Observational/qualitative claim in paper describing current MSD practice (no numeric sample reported).
high negative LLM-Powered Workflow Optimization for Multidisciplinary Soft... frequency of coordination rounds / error-prone handoffs
Even with AI coding assistants like GitHub Copilot, individual coding tasks are semi-automated, but the workflow connecting domain knowledge to implementation is not.
Qualitative observation/comparative statement in paper (no empirical sample reported).
high negative LLM-Powered Workflow Optimization for Multidisciplinary Soft... degree of automation of coding tasks vs. end-to-end workflow automation
Multidisciplinary Software Development (MSD) requires domain experts and developers to collaborate across incompatible formalisms and separate artifact sets.
Conceptual/argument in paper framing the problem (no empirical sample reported).
high negative LLM-Powered Workflow Optimization for Multidisciplinary Soft... collaboration/workflow efficiency between domain experts and developers